A recent sales study indicates that consumption of seafood dishes in BayCity restaurants has increased by 30 percent during the past five years. Yetthere are no currently operating city restaurants whose specialty is seafood.Moreover, the majority of families in Bay City are two-income families, and anationwide study has shown that such families eat significantly fewerhome-cooked meals than they did a decade ago but at the same time express moreconcern about healthful eating. Therefore, the new Captain Seafood restaurantthat specializes in seafood should be quite popular and profitable.
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Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to beaddressed in order to decide whether the conclusion and the argument on whichit is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to the questionswould help to evaluate the conclusion.
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The author of this argument claims that a new Captain Seafood restaurantthat specialized in seafood will be popular and make profits if is built. Inthis argument, much seemingly convincing evidence is given, but there are manyassumptions can be challenged by the readers. And if the author wants to makeit less unconvincing, he should answer some questions that can weaken theargument. Otherwise, his argument can be easily weakened or even toppled.
Firstly, the author asserts that since the consumption of seafood dishesin Bay City restaurants has increased by 30 percent, then seafood is much morepopular during these five years. Readers will be confused and may ask questionsabout the consumption condition of seafood in Bay City restaurant five yearsago. It's much possible that Bay City makes only a few kinds of seafood fiveyears ago, and even though the consumption for seafood in Bay City increases by30 percent, it still doesn't sell too much seafood today. Therefore, thisevidence doesn't indicate the fact the seafood becomes much more popular inthese years. To make it persuasive, the author has to provide furtherinformation about the real demand for seafood nowadays.
Furthermore, the author refers to the result of a nationwide study, whichis that two-income families eat significantly few home-cooked meals. Thisresult doesn't necessarily imply that those families prefer dining out, becausethey can go to their friends or relatives' home to have meals. Moreover, evenif they will eat out in restaurants, they haven't promise that they like orhave a tendency to eat seafood. From my point of view, the author shouldcollect more evidence which will indicate two-income families do havepreference in seafood from restaurants. Such further information can make theauthor's analysis compact and logical.
In addition, suppose that we accept the author's idea that seafood becomesmuch popular and lots of people are willing to have it in restaurants, we cannotstill believe in the conclusion that the new Captain Seafood will be quitepopular and profitable. To argue this, readers want to know the condition ofsupply of seafood in Bay City. What if there are also many other restaurants,say a restaurant called Dalian Awesome Seafood, who are specializing in seafoodin Bay City? If there have already been too many, which implies that thereexists an excess supply of seafood, will the new Captain Seafood restaurantmake plenty profits? I don't think so. The popularity of seafood cannot guaranteethe prosperity of the new Captain Seafood. Considering only this one point, thewhole argument proves assailable.
To sum up, the argument seems good due to plenty of vivid evidence.Nevertheless, readers can still find it weak and can overturn it easily. Tomake it convincing, the author should add more information to this analysis orstrengthen his existing evidence. Only by these means can be believe that therunning of the new Captain Seafood restaurant in Bay City is reasonable and hasa bright future. | 
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发表于 2012-11-21 16:16:50
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