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The following appeared in a letter from the owner of the Sunnyside Towers apartment complex to its manager.
"One month ago, all the showerheads in the first three buildings of the Sunnyside Towers complex were modified to restrict maximum water flow to one-third of what it used to be. Although actual readings of water usage before and after the adjustment are not yet available, the change will obviously result in a considerable savings for Sunnyside Corporation, since the corporation must pay for water each month. Except for a few complaints about low water pressure, no problems with showers have been reported since the adjustment. I predict that modifying showerheads to restrict water flow throughout all twelve buildings in the Sunnyside Towers complex will increase our profits even more dramatically."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
In this argument, the author concludes that by modifying showerheads to restrict water flow throughout all twelve buildings in the Sunnyside Towers complex will increase their profits. The author bases this on the evidence that by restricting maximum water flow to one-third of what it used to be, this may help Sunnyside Corporation increase their revenue. The argument seems vague, since the evidence is not well-supportive.
First, How much does the company spend on modifying the water flow system? If the money spent on renovating maximum water flow outweigh the money saved by the system. The argument will be weaken. If not, the author’s argument will be strengthened.
Second, is cutting maximum water flow to one-third of what it used to be effective? If people needed to use average 50 c.c of water after peeing, simply cutting down the maximum water flow of the tape water will not be effective.
Last but not least, do these complaints come from people who used to or are used to taking showers in this corporation? Which way does the reports take? The reports may be fake, if the reports were not given to diverse people in thir corporation.
To conclude, the author’s argument seems unpersuasive, since the evidence is not well-supportive.
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发表于 2012-7-25 01:24:58
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