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题目是：
The following appeared in a letter from the owner of the Sunnyside Towers apartment complex to its manager.
"One month ago, all the showerheads in the first three buildings of the Sunnyside Towers complex were modified to restrict maximum water flow to one-third of what it used to be. Although actual readings of water usage before and after the adjustment are not yet available, the change will obviously result in a considerable savings for Sunnyside Corporation, since the corporation must pay for water each month. Except for a few complaints about low water pressure, no problems with showers have been reported since the adjustment. I predict that modifying showerheads to restrict water flow throughout all twelve buildings in the Sunnyside Towers complex will increase our profits even more dramatically."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
我写的：
The author makes an allegation that measures in limiting the usage of shower water will reduce the water used by workers and thus the Sunnyside Towers' will spend less money on water, which leads to profits to increase. The author also claim that there are merely a few complains, which means workers are fine about such a change, so Sunnyside Towers are supposed to take the same measure on showerhead in all the rest buildings. However, details used by the author to shore up his conclusion are insufficient.
When the actual reading of water which has been used is still unavailable, the author’s assertion that there will definitely be a considerable saving in using water makes no sense on the grounds that we should not make a conclusion only by imagination. Actually, there are a multiple number of unknown factors in this situation which may lead to an complete opposite result. For example, the employees who use less water each hour may take a longer shower on average, leading a disappointing unchangeable consequence in the quantity of using water, or even worse—increase in using water. Therefore, the Sunnyside Towers cannot guarantee reducibility in water using under such conditions.
Granted that restriction is able to constringe the quantity of water people use, it doesn't necessarily mean profits will rise up because of the costs in modifying all the showerheads. Compared to the amount of money needed to modify all the showerheads, the money saved in water might be too little to cover the modifying fees because water is very cheap. What is more, common sense tells us the more complex a machine is, the more maintenance it needs, which leads to costs in increased maintenance fees of showerheads higher than money saved in water.
As to the workers' complains, the author makes the judgment claiming all the workers will get used to the change on the basis of only one month's observation, which is absolutely not enough. The reason why there are only a few complaints this month may be determined by a large range of random incidents, like the climate. Provided that the company makes this change in winter, it will be easy to explain why there are only a few complaints--people use less water during shower in winter, but once summer comes, the problems may appear with growing number of complaints. On the condition that providing workers satisfactory working environments is essential for a company to achieve the role of maximum profits, such a change may diminish workers’ enthusiasm in working, which is negative for the company to make profits.
From all the discussions above, measures in controlling water using cannot guarantee an increase in profits and the workers' altitude towards this measure is still uncertain. Therefore a comprehensive investigation is needed before the company modifies all the rest showerheads. |
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发表于 2012-3-20 20:47:14
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