- UID
- 607011
- 在线时间
- 小时
- 注册时间
- 2011-2-18
- 最后登录
- 1970-1-1
- 主题
- 帖子
- 性别
- 保密
|
60.Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
In thisargument,the author argues that the Consoildated Industries(CI) should investin heating oil because the retail sale of home heating oil is one of thesemajor business operations. To support this claim the author point out that thetypically weather pattern will continue for several years and many new homesare being built in the regin in response to recent population growth that causethe demand of heating oil. However, the argument relies on substantiatedassumptions and is therefore unconvincing.
The writerimplies that last heating season this region experienced 90 days withbelow-normal temperatures. The arguer ignores that in previous years how manydays would last in winter.If previous winter was always last more than 90 days,this year will be a warm season. Without knowingwhether the statistic of temperature was representative of the whole season, itis impossible to confidently apply results to cold winter. Perhaps few days ofthe temperature are blow zero or near zero, other days are normal temperatures.Lacking information about the tendency of temperatures, the director cannotmake a convincing argument based on that date.
Inaddition, even if many new homes are being built in the region in response torecent population growth but there is no evidence that people will live inthese new buildings. Maybe the price of the new apartments is too high that noone can afford, traffic problem would also influencepeople to choose where to live. Furthermore, the new homes perhaps use advenced technology and they wouldgive up the use of oil heating. Other new heating fuel maybe availablecurrently. No evidence could indicate that increase of new homes will berelated to the demand of heating oil.
However,the author recommend investment of heating oil in CI and point out that heatingoil is one of the major business. But we cannot guarentee the investment willbe profitable. Profitability is function of bothrevenue and expense.Wedo not know any financial information about CI and whetherit would be able to accept the new investment. Blind investment is not wise forsuch retail sale company.People who live in this community is used to believelarge companies, the large companies have skilled workers to deal with heatingproblem and have prefect after-sales service. Investment is not only concernabout the requirement of people but also relate to profit of the project.
In thefinal analysis, the conclusion reached in this argument is invalid andmisleading. To make it logically acceptable, the arguer would have to providemore evidence concerning the increasd new homes and the demand of heating oil.Additionally, the arguer must demonstrate that investing in CI will beprofitable. |
|
京公网安备11010202008513号 京ICP证101109号 京ICP备12012021号
发表于 2012-2-4 01:07:08
收藏
收藏
