大全一题

20.   When
people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action
is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct
when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it
often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.

Which of the following, if true, best
supports the claims above?

(A) Judging the
success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.

(B) Judging
which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other
actions that have been successful in similar past situations.

(C) Learning
whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using
that strategy through several trials.

(D) Distinguishing
a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and
ineffective action is often impossible.（D）

(E) Making a
successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that
prediction.

D~

第二句就是把第一句给否了。所以是D.

我勉强理解了一下，不知道可不可以这样想~

题目先提出一个结论：如果有了action，同时出现了result,人们就会认为prediction（不会有result，除非有action) 是对的。紧接着提出反驳：result admits of more than one interpretation

D项说不可能将正确的prediction 和有效的action与错误的prediction和无效的action区分开。支持原文在于：结果允许有多种解释，那么就是说引起结果的action有多种可能，而无法将有效的行为与无效的行为区分开，又怎么能找到正确的预期呢？注意，文中说预期是一个action,对一个result的。当很多action都针对一个result，那么就有很多预期，究竟谁对谁错无法区分。所以support了原文。