[讨论]关于一道LSAT题的不同看法/LSAT-4-1-13

.13. That the policy of nuclear deterrence has worked thus far is unquestionable. Since the end of the Second World War, the very fact that there were nuclear armaments in existence has kept major powers from using nuclear weapons, for fear of starting a worldwide nuclear exchange that would make the land of the power initiating it uninhabitable. The proof is that a third world war between superpowers has not happened.

Which one of the following, if true, indicates a flaw in the argument?

(A) Maintaining a high level of nuclear armaments represents a significant drain on a country's economy.

(B) From what has happened in the past, it is impossible to infer with certainty what will happen in the future, so an accident could still trigger a third world war between superpowers.

(C) Continuing to produce nuclear weapons beyond the minimum needed for deterrence increases the likelihood of a nuclear accident.

(D) The major powers have engaged in many smaller-scale military operations since the end of the Second World War, while refraining from a nuclear confrontation.

(E) It cannot be known whether it was nuclear deterrence that worked, or some other factor, such as a recognition of the economic value of remaining at peace.

该题答案是E, 但我认为应该是B，从过去不一定推出将来，所以战争仍可能爆发，虽然我知道E很有道理，是典型的他因削弱，但B看上去也很美啊。

B OUT OF SCOPE

1。原文的推理是为二战后一直没战争找理由（二战后一直没超级大国间的战争已是事实）

2。B是预测将来是否有战争，OUT OF SCOPE