argue新题 AAB12 大家进来攻击呀

12.The following appeared in a research paper written for an introductory economics course:

“For the past century, an increase in the number of residential building permits issued per month in a particular region has been a reliable indicator of coming improvements to that region’s economy. If the monthly number of residential building permits issued rises consistently for a few months, the local unemployment rate almost always falls and economic production increases. This well-established connection reveals an effective method by which a regional government can end a local economic downturn: relax regulations governing all construction so that many more building permits can be issued.”

Discuss how well reasoned . . .etc.

1 all things are equal

2 causal oversimplification

3

实在想不出第三点了，大家进来指点一下啊？？？

还有，这个building permits 是“建房许可”的意思么？

1，不与时俱进。

过去有效，不代表现在或将来采取该措施也会有效；

2，忽略他因。

以前建房许可增加了，失业率下降、经济增产了，之间并没有充分证据显示存在必然的内在因果联系。也许是其他因素，比如其他行业在该地兴旺发展了、或外来资本在当地投资增多，才提供了更多的就业机会、促进了经济的增长呢？

3，忽视市场需求规律：

市场需求才是商品增加供应的前提。如果当地没有充分可信的市场调研数据显示对房地产的需求是旺盛的，在如此市场背景下，现在增加建房许可，只会出现泡沫经济，导致房地产行业畸形发展，停滞不前，后果只能是大量的房地产公司倒闭，只能带来更多的裁员和更高的失业率了！加之银行呆帐增多，当地的经济别说好转，只会飞流直下三千尺了！

鉴于以上几点，您的建议就只能歇菜了！如果您是中国负责管理房地产的政府官员，请公开您的财产申报，稽核机构将核实是否从房地产公司顺了多少百姓交的税，顺便请您余生只能住烂尾楼之露台——您亲自批准的政绩工程！呵呵！

谢谢，

攻击的很好，感觉。