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到底有没有人真的懂这道题目呀,CXD 《逻辑推理》 P344

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发表于 2011-6-20 05:12:54 | 只看该作者 回帖奖励 |倒序浏览 |阅读模式
前几天发的帖子,也有两个热心的同学回了,但是感觉解释的不清楚,请大家再看看

Kyle: The rate of highway fatalities per 100 million miles driven was  
  about a third lower last year than ten years ago. The decrease is mainly  
  attributable to greater use of seat belts and to less drinking of alcohol  
  by drivers, but last year s sluggish economy also contributed, by curtai-  
  ling driving.  
   
Lisa: The economy could not have been a factor, because even if fewer  
  fatalities occur when fewer miles are driven, the number "per 100 million  
  miles driven" is
what you were discussing, and that figure would not  
  fall merely because fewer miles were driven.  
Lisa s objection is based on  
A)  indicating, that a confusion between cause and effect has taken place  
B)  distinguishing between total number of instances and rate of occurrence  
C)  proposing an alternative way of interpreting the data presented  
D) pointing out that statistics can be misleading if selected to prove  
a point  
E) showing that lack of precision has caused a relevant ambiguity  答案是B
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沙发
发表于 2011-6-20 05:32:16 | 只看该作者
Lisa指出了kyle的一个问题就是,kyle讨论的是 "per 100 million  miles driven" 那么也就是说不管是开的mile多了还是少了,比较都是以100mile为基础。比方说去年开了100mile,死了2个人,那么是2/100,今年开的mile少了只有50mile,死了1个人,那么是1/50,尽管mile少了这两个rate是一样的,这就是lisa的论点所在。
板凳
发表于 2011-6-20 14:39:42 | 只看该作者
Lisa指出了kyle的一个问题就是,kyle讨论的是 "per 100 million  miles driven" 那么也就是说不管是开的mile多了还是少了,比较都是以100mile为基础。比方说去年开了100mile,死了2个人,那么是2/100,今年开的mile少了只有50mile,死了1个人,那么是1/50,尽管mile少了这两个rate是一样的,这就是lisa的论点所在。
-- by 会员 camelo777 (2011/6/20 5:32:16)



LZ是没读明白答案的意思,我帮忙解释下
distinguishing between total number of instances and rate of occurrence  


total number of instances就是上面camelo说的死了2个人,和死了1个人。死的总人数
rate of occurrence是2/100和1/50。死的比率
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