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过去5年上涨,不代表以后仍然会上涨。任何一种资产的价格都会经历波峰peak和波谷trough,房子也不例外。在经过5年的上涨后,the possibility of 下跌显然要大于涨的概率。 If we 买在山顶上,we’ll experience a hard time,moreover, our life will be put into tragedy。So when we decide to buy a asset, we must do a lot of research about it to avoid 悲剧。 By contrast,the stock经历了下跌,未来上涨的概率反倒要大。
Even if we grant the preceding assumption that people can buy a house in a relatively low price, 但是由于房子的变现能力差low liquidity,如果把全部资产都配置在房子上,也是很危险的事情。Because 我们不可能去住很多套房子,we 只能睡在一张床上。In addition,more real estates means more物业税,房子多了以后,the holding cost让你吃不消。
The author also suggests that all the resident should buy house. This is nonsense. Because 房子是大宗商品,占家庭支出的比重很大,所以是否买房应该亮丽而行。
Inconclusion,作者ignore several important factors,and achieve a ridiculous result。
PS:再bs一下温秀秀的适度宽松货币政策,推高房价和物价。 |
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