要考试了，求助一道ARGUMENT思路

1.      Cause and effect: the author assumes that the decline of occupancy rates at resort hotels is an indicative sign of the fact that the population is growing older. Other possible reasons: the past six month is the low season of tourism; the country is facing an economic recession.

2.      Misapplied generalization: The author unfairly assumes that the unnamed region adequately reflects the entire country.  If it turns out, for example, that the region cited is Florida, it would clearly be unrepresentative. The reason for this is obvious. Florida is populated by a disproportionate number of retired people and is a very popular vacation destination during the winter months, thus leading to low resort hotel occupancy during the summer months.

3.      All things are equal: historical circumstances indicate nothing about the situation in times to come. It is entirely possible that a baby boom period is on the way; government policies encouraging tourism will be announced.

The following appeared in a newspaper story giving advice about investments:

Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.

Some assumptions given by the speaker are  logically flawed and problematic.

1.
                    Data lacks of authority and representativeness

As a factional part of 20% of total population are elder people occupied in the statistics. However, we can not be confirmed that can be fully representative to represent the entire customer group who would eschew using resort hotel since they are getting older if that is the case. Based on our observation, we are often exposed that elder people visiting sanatorium place  or resort hotel to pursue health healing . Take further step,  we can deem that other 80% of the population can be the target customers , if this is the case, the occupancy rate  of resort hotel will not be disturbed if the elder customer stop coming. As nowdays, the business is often runing out of border beyond regional residential area. That articulate that the resort hotel is open  to a large custmers potentially from other regions and even foreign countries.

 regonal geographic border,

2.Lack of evidence given

we are not told that the rising older people population served as a direct causal effect to cause the occupancy rate of resort hotel decline. Even though the elder people' life expentancy  continuously rise and elder population increase, however ,dose not necessarily associate  that they are spend more time patronizing hospital rather than using resort hotel instead, they might trave abroad or healthily like indoor activities at home .We are not supplied that the foreseeable reason that investing hospitcal can be the wise choise to substitude the resort hotel.

Since we are not told that the whether the occupancy rate in the resort hotel is refered to the summer or winter time. As our common sense tells us that the seasonal impact can be dramatically tumbled the hotel business revenue if this statistic data intercepted from winter time whereas the goden time business should be occured in summer.

This is for your reference.

Good luck with your coming GMAT exam ! Same as you, I am going to take my 2nd GMAT in 23rd, April. Next week.

Some assumptions given by the speaker are  logically flawed and problematic.

1.
            Data lacks of authority and representativeness

As a factional part of 20% of total population are elder people occupied in the statistics. However, we can not be confirmed that can be fully representative to represent the entire customer group who would eschew using resort hotel since they are getting older if that is the case. Based on our observation, we are often exposed that elder people visiting sanatorium place  or resort hotel to pursue health healing . Take further step,  we can deem that other 80% of the population can be the target customers , if this is the case, the occupancy rate  of resort hotel will not be disturbed if the elder customer stop coming. As nowdays, the business is often runing out of border beyond regional residential area. That articulate that the resort hotel is open  to a large custmers potentially from other regions and even foreign countries.

 regonal geographic border,

2.Lack of evidence given

we are not told that the rising older people population served as a direct causal effect to cause the occupancy rate of resort hotel decline. Even though the elder people' life expentancy  continuously rise and elder population increase, however ,dose not necessarily associate  that they are spend more time patronizing hospital rather than using resort hotel instead, they might trave abroad or healthily like indoor activities at home .We are not supplied that the foreseeable reason that investing hospitcal can be the wise choise to substitude the resort hotel.

Since we are not told that the whether the occupancy rate in the resort hotel is refered to the summer or winter time. As our common sense tells us that the seasonal impact can be dramatically tumbled the hotel business revenue if this statistic data intercepted from winter time whereas the goden time business should be occured in summer.

This is for your reference.

Good luck with your coming GMAT exam ! Same as you, I am going to take my 2nd GMAT in 23rd, April. Next week.