OG10-171

171. A recent report determined that although only three percent of drivers on Maryland highways equipped their vehicles with radar detectors, thirty-three percent of all vehicles ticketed for exceeding the speed limit were equipped with them. Clearly, drivers who equip their vehicles with radar detectors are more likely to exceed the speed limit regularly than are drivers who do not.

The conclusion drawn above depends on which of the following assumptions?

(A) Drivers who equip their vehicles with radar detectors are less likely to be ticketed for exceeding the speed limit than are drivers who do not.

(B) Drivers who are ticketed for exceeding the speed limit are more likely to exceed the speed limit regularly than are drivers who are not ticketed.

(C) The number of vehicles that were ticketed for exceeding the speed limit was greater than the number of vehicles that were equipped with radar detectors.

(D) Many of the vehicles that were ticketed for exceeding the speed limit were ticketed more than once in the time period covered by the report. B

(E) Drivers on Maryland highways exceeded the speed limit more often than did drivers on other state highways not covered in the report.

这题小弟对答案有点想不明白

我看完题认为原文第一句给出的是一个现象关系，既3％装雷达的人在被超速罚款的人中占了33％。小弟认为这是一个现象，不是一个因果推理，然后题目第二句就给出了结论认为是装了雷达导致司机更容易超速，小弟认为这是一个因果推论。

小弟分析认为有两种可能，既一种是因为装了雷达导致超速，还有一种可能是因为装雷达的司机本身就更容易超速，他装了超速，不装也超速。装了在33％里，不装这些司机就在67％里。

所以小弟觉得答案应该是排除后一种可能作为假定，应当是：装雷达的司机没有比没有装雷达的司机更容易超速。

可是答案里没有找到，B我没有想明白，而且取非我也没办法削弱原文，请教各位，指点一二。

楼上一开始就有点想歪了，这题的题目部分意图不太容易一目了然，但读了选项A和B就得到了一些提示告诉大家题目要问什么问题了。

B说得到超速罚款的人比没得到罚款的人更倾向于去超速。原文最后一句说给车装了雷达的驾驶员比...更倾向于超速。原文前两句说那些装了雷达的仅仅3%的人产生了33%的超速罚单，直接推论是装了雷达就得到更多罚单，仔细想发现有可能雷达有问题，乱开罚单；也有可能雷达改变了车子结构，让车子不由自主地开快；还有可能雷达干扰了仪器盘，让驾驶员误以为车速低。

所以这题还是很细致的

请问你们的OG10是紫色的吗？为什么我的OG10 只有80几道题呢？

其实，大家应该注意到，题目中的前提和结论中有个gap：
前提：所有车中，3%的车装了雷达；但是，被罚的车中，33%是这些装了雷达的车。
结论：drivers who equip their vehicles with radar detectors are more likely to exceed the speed limit regularly than are drivers who do not

请注意，结论里有个词regularly，这个regularly是从题目中的信息推导不出来的。就确定确实是装了雷达的车中比较大比例的被罚了，但是，是不是同一部车会继续被罚？题目中没有给出这个问题的信息。车被罚了一次，不代表这些车以后还是会更可能被罚。有可能装了雷达的车被罚的比例仍然高，但每次被罚的不是同一部车。比例不变，但可能每次都是不同的车被罚，比如，可能是新装雷达的车。被罚了一次，我下次就不被罚了，而是新手被罚。

所以，为了支持结论，必须增加信息，说明曾经被罚的车，以后还是更可能被罚。B选线正是补充了regularly的信息。