GWD-4-32

Q32:

Although most smoking-related illnesses are caused by inhaling the tar in tobacco smoke, it is addiction to nicotine that prevents most smokers from quitting.  In

an effort to decrease the incidence of smoking-related illnesses, lawmakers in Sandonia plan to reduce the average quantity of nicotine per cigarette by half over the next five years.  Unfortunately, smokers who are already addicted to nicotine tend to react to such reductions by smoking correspondingly more cigarettes.

The information above most strongly supports which of the following predictions about the effects of implementing the Sandonian government’s plan?

1. The average quantity of tar inhaled by Sandonian smokers who are currently addicted to nicotine will probably not decrease during the next five years.
2. Sandonian smokers who are not already addicted to nicotine will probably also begin to smoke more cigarettes during the next five years than they had previously.
3. The annual number of Sandonian smokers developing smoking-related illnesses will probably decrease during the next five years.
4. The proportion of Sandonians attempting to quit smoking who succeed in that attempt will probably decrease during the next five years.
5. The number of Sandonians who quit smoking during the next five years will probably exceed the number who quit during the last five years.

答案是A，但是总觉得答案和结论没多大关系。E为什么不对？我觉得next five years中，新的烟民可能更好戒烟，就算没有新烟民，总比之前五年戒的人多。这题应该怎么分析呢？

之前都没人问过，是不是太简单了

文章说焦油对人体有害，但是是尼古丁使人对香烟上瘾，lawmakers in Sandonia 把每只香烟的尼古丁含量降到了一半，但是已经上瘾的人会通过吸更多的烟来补偿。

有文可以推出--上瘾的人吸食的尼古丁不会减少，他们还会上瘾，也就是它们吸入的焦油也不会减少。

E说未来5年戒烟的人会比过去5年的多，与文中尼古丁吸入量不减少的内容相反。

明白了，谢谢。

由于每支烟的焦油量没有减少，但是吸的烟多了，因此单位没变×数量增多，所以总量增多。

我没注意到这个关系，惭愧~总是一心想着反驳作者结论。。