prep-2-45 关于赤字与美元贬值一题

这题以前在哪作过，想不起来了，是GWD还是OG么？大家帮忙看看！

45.    (33087-!-item-!-188;#058&007558)

The recent decline in the value of the dollar was triggered by a prediction of slower economic growth in the coming year.  But that prediction would not have adversely affected the dollar had it not been for the government's huge budget deficit, which must therefore be decreased to prevent future currency declines.

Which of the following, if true, would most seriously weaken the conclusion about how to prevent future currency declines?

(A) The government has made little attempt to reduce the budget deficit.

(B) The budget deficit has not caused a slowdown in economic growth.

(C) The value of the dollar declined several times in the year prior to the recent prediction of slower economic growth.

(D) Before there was a large budget deficit, predictions of slower economic growth frequently caused declines in the dollar's value.

(E) When there is a large budget deficit, other events in addition to predictions of slower economic growth sometimes trigger declines in currency value.

答案是D，我选B

我的推理链是deficit-->slow growth-->value decrease

我觉得B是打破第一个推理链，而D是打破第一个推理连的同时承认第二个推理链。请问为什么B不对？谢谢！

是选D 题目做多了 也忘了哪做过

B不对 B的意思是budget deficit 不会引起slowdown in economic growth，而题目的逻辑是budget deficit 可以直接引起decline in the value of the dollar。你要 weaken的是这个逻辑，而D就weaken了这个逻辑。D的意思是budget deficit 没有引起decline in the value of the dollar。所以D正确。

B显然是irrelavent,而且主要用来混淆视听。

我觉得比较搞得倒是D和E

乍看之下D没有悬念，但E貌似很炫目。

但仔细看E，会发现E指出在巨大政府预算赤字下，除了经济学家的预测，还有其他的许多原因可以导致经济下滑，这样容易一下子不假思索的人为那些“许多原因”不可控制，就算你减少了赤字，也不一定能控制货币贬值。但实际上这个推论是伪的，因为既然已经把赤字数额太高作为前提了，那减少赤字或多或少能对控制货币贬值有正的作用。所以E是不对的。

可是这句不是说因为有政府赤字，预期才会产生影响么？说明defict与slow growth有关系啊。

哦，明白了，B是说经济真的下降，而题目中说的预期。所以不对。

可是还是觉得D像在耍赖，把体中结论反着说了一遍。题说要不是因为赤字，经济预期下降就不会引起贬值。而D说没有赤字，经济预期下降就会引起贬值。我觉得不够说服力。

再帮我看看好么？

这道题真是超难，我是蒙对的。想看看NN们的思路，但大家怎么解释这么少？我是这么想的：

真绕！

顶一下！