[求助]og147

147.

Crops can be traded on the futures market before they are harvested. If a poor corn harvest is predicted, prices of corn futures rise; if a bountiful corn harvest is predicted, prices of corn futures fall. This morning meteorologists are predicting much-needed rain for the corn-growing region starting tomorrow. Therefore, since adequate moisture is essential for the current crop’s survival, prices of corn futures will fall sharply today.

Which of the following, if true, most weakens the argument above?

(A) Corn that does not receive adequate moisture during its critical pollination stage will not produce a bountiful harvest.

(B) Futures prices for corn have been fluctuating more dramatically this season than last season.

(C) The rain that meteorologists predicted for tomorrow is expected to extend well beyond the corn-growing region.

(D) Agriculture experts announced today that a disease that has devastated some of the corn crop will spread widely before the end of the growing season.

(E) Most people who trade in corn futures rarely take physical possession of the corn they trade

147.

The argument, in predicting a drop in the price of corn futures, relies on news suggesting a good-sized corn crop. This prediction is undermined if there is, at the same time, news suggesting a small crop. Choice D presents such news and is therefore the best answer.

Choice A provides background information describing a stage at which rains are essential, and choice C makes rain over the entire corn-growing area seem more certain. Both are fully compatible with the argument and do nothing to weaken it. Past price changes (choice B) and details of who handles harvested corn (choice E) cannot affect the eventual size of this year’s corn crop, so neither is relevant to the argument.

正確答案沒問題

不過我再做的時候....

覺得C好像可以是support的答案

因為雨水充足,預計會有豐收,所以期貨市場價格會下跌

如果改成找支持的題型

不知道就對了嗎??

我自己的看法....希望指點指點

关于这一题我还有一点不明白:

D选项是"说农业专家宣称在生长期结束前，一种危害some of the corn crop的疾病将会广泛传播。"

(1)"诉诸权威"不是错误选项的标志吗？这里为什么会正确？

(2)一开始我把这个选项当成无关选项了，"疾病"这个概念不是新提出而文章未涉及的吗，正确答案不是应该说说"下雨"和庄稼收成的关系吗，因此我选的是A。

(3)D选项中"一种危害some of the corn crop的疾病"，不是有人说some值是代表"一些"，不具有代表性吗？

回楼上

（1）不能同意，不知道你这条原则是哪里来的，但是要看题目的具体情况吧，OG165符合你说的情况，但是是不是因为‘诉诸权威’产生在选项中呢？而本题题目中就出现了‘权威’就不能这么肯定说错了吧？也想知道有没有这样的规则以及出处

（2）我觉得本题属于‘有因有果’因：专家判断；果：与一般原理符合；如果要weaken我觉得就是‘他因他果’（大牛lawyer中没有这个分类了，所以纯属个人观点）肯定要出新概念。

（3）和OG134选项有一象（其他肯定还有，暂时找不到），你所说的代表性是什么？（危害全部吗？没必要吧）

http://forum.chasedream.com/dispbbs.asp?BoardID=24&ID=32721当中有：

一、 诉诸权威/大众信念/人身攻击/感情色彩等选项（非学者态度）
十、 代表性问题 （Survey等的样本）

我就是不太理解。。。

回楼上，看了你说的帖子，没有深看进去，我现在水平太弱还不能完全吸收。但是其题目是“GMAT逻辑错误选项总结”我觉得这是这一规则在该题不能应用原因之一吧（只是个人感觉）。规则好多时候不能生搬硬套的，如果前提和假设都不符合，套进来只会越来越糊涂（个人感觉了）。

同意你的说法。