逻辑1

寂寞的自由 · 发表于 2003-10-29 03:51:00

2. Reviewing historical data, medical researchers in California found that counties with the largest number of television sets per capita have had the lowest incidence of a serious brain disease, mosquito-borne encephalitis. The researchers have concluded that people in these counties stay indoors more and thus avoid exposure to the disease.The researchers' conclusion would be most strengthened if which of the following were true?
(A) Programs designed to control the size of disease-bearing mosquito populations have not affected the incidence of mosquito- borne encephalitis.
(B) The occupations of county residents affect their risk of exposure to mosquito-borne encephalitis more than does television-watching.
(C) The incidence of mosquito-borne encephalitis in counties with the largest number of television sets per capita is likely to decrease even further.(D) The more time people in a county spend outdoors, the greater their awareness of the dangers of mosquito-borne encephalitis.
(E) The more television sets there are per capita in a county, the more time the average county resident spends watching television.
正确答案是E，但是为什么C不对呢？很有混淆相似含义的两个选项

谢谢大家

深海的小美人鱼 · 发表于 2003-10-29 05:50:00

结论是people in these counties stay indoors more and thus avoid exposure to the diseasen那么题目问的是加强结论的是什么
前面说拥有人均拥有电视机多，所以病少。而E中说：
the more television sets there are per capita in a county, the more time the average county resident spends watching television

人们都在家看电视了，所以不外出，减少蚊虫叮咬，因此发病的机会少，从而加强了作者的论断
C the incidence of mosquito-borne encephalitis in counties with the largest number of television sets per capita is likely to decrease even further

这里面有个LIKELY表示的是假设，而非加强

寂寞的自由 · 发表于 2003-10-29 16:30:00

楼上的美人鱼，我想强调的一点是，GMAT思维中，假设一般就是加强结论的功能和等效表达，所以“这里面有个LIKELY表示的是假设，而非加强” 我不太赞同哦

八戒 · 发表于 2003-10-29 16:49:00

I think the reasoning is that :
counties with the largest number of television sets per capita have had the lowest incidence of a serious brain disease, mosquito-borne encephalitis --->
people in these counties stay indoors more and thus avoid exposure to the disease.

There is a gap between counties with the largest number of television sets per capita and stay indoors.
E build the bridge on this gap.
the more television sets there are per capita in a county--->the more time the average county resident spends watching television.(people must stay indoors)[B]--->avoid exposure to the disease.--->the lowest incidence of a serious brain disease.

So e is the correct answer.

c just show us that the incidence of mosquito-borne encephalitis in counties with the largest number of television sets per capita is likely to decrease even further, and fails to establish a casual relationship between the largest number of television sets per capita and the lowest incidence of a serious brain disease, mosquito-borne encephalitis.So , in my view , c is irrelevant statement.

Comments are welcome!

[此贴子已经被作者于2003-10-29 16:50:21编辑过]

cranberry · 发表于 2003-10-29 19:31:00

以下是引用八戒在2003-10-29 16:49:00的发言：
I think the reasoning is that :
counties with the largest number of television sets per capita have had the lowest incidence of a serious brain disease, mosquito-borne encephalitis --->
people in these counties stay indoors more and thus avoid exposure to the disease.

There is a gap between counties with the largest number of television sets per capita and stay indoors.
E build the bridge on this gap.
the more television sets there are per capita in a county--->the more time the average county resident spends watching television.(people must stay indoors)[B]--->avoid exposure to the disease.--->the lowest incidence of a serious brain disease.

So e is the correct answer.

c just show us that the incidence of mosquito-borne encephalitis in counties with the largest number of television sets per capita is likely to decrease even further, and fails to establish a casual relationship between the largest number of television sets per capita and the lowest incidence of a serious brain disease, mosquito-borne encephalitis.So , in my view , c is irrelevant statement.

Comments are welcome!

[此贴子已经被作者于2003-10-29 16:50:21编辑过]

well-done!

寂寞的自由 · 发表于 2003-10-30 17:35:00

谢谢楼上的八戒的精辟解释！

寂寞的自由 · 发表于 2003-10-30 17:40:00

There is a gap between counties with the largest number of television sets per capita and stay indoors.
E build the bridge on this gap.
c just show us that the incidence of mosquito-borne encephalitis in counties with the largest number of television sets per capita is likely to decrease even further, and fails to establish a casual relationship between the largest number of television sets per capita and the lowest incidence of a serious brain disease, mosquito-borne encephalitis.

八戒的GMAT思维方式很强啊~~~~~！滴水不漏的GMAT观，我猜想一定是个GMAT高分的牛人！

寂寞的自由 · 发表于 2003-10-30 17:43:00

c just show us that the incidence of mosquito-borne encephalitis in counties with the largest number of television sets per capita is likely to decrease even further, and fails to establish a casual relationship between the largest number of television sets per capita and the lowest incidence of a serious brain disease, mosquito-borne encephalitis.

不过这个我有些不同意，我觉得C其实已经把这种因果关系说清楚了，就是得病的可能性减小因为电视量的增多，后因前果，很明显的因果推断啊

cranberry · 发表于 2003-10-30 18:15:00

它只是列举了两个恰好前后发生的事实而已，在没有把因果关系说明以前，任何的前后发生的事实都不一定是因果关系，所以C没有说明的作用。

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