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It is a grave mistake to theorize before one has data. Inductive reasoning might be more important and certainly more popular than deductive reasoning, which, however, does not necessarily imply doing the latter is a “grave mistake”. Firstly, I agree that data and other fact would provide ground for theory. One cannot persuade other people to believe about his theory without evidence. Also, when one has enough evidences to prove that something is true, therefore, he can comes to a conclusion that there is a consequence that related between two things. So, theory established after the accumulation of data but it is certain that data is crucial to prove a point is true. I think some time people found enough evidences after they come to a conclusion. But this circumstance is very rare. Most of the time I believe people raise their hypothesis after they had gathered information. For example, famous biologist Darwin has established the evolution theory, he has been observing and gathering information in natural field for many years. Therefore, after he has dig into the relation of the changes in the biology progress, he summarized his understanding about the rule of the nature. Since those idea won’t come just as a snap if he didn’t research and collect enough data to inspire him. On the other hand, making bold assumptions about the unknown world is not only necessary but also worthwhile. If we take a glance at how human achieved all those things that seemingly impossible in the past few centuries; we could find out that not all those inventions and theories has been base on the firm ground of ample data. Since ancient times, people has longing to fly, they have been attempt to fly in countless ways, from install a big wing in their body until nowadays the invention of airplane. So, it is true that people has the hypothesis that there is some way to getting into the sky before they reach the conclusion of how to do it. But the result is human finally figured out a strategy that works out. On the conclusion, I think to theorize before data is not a grave mistake, neither does theorize after data is only way to come out with sound theory. The paramount importance is to have qualified data to support the theory is right, no matter what time to start to theorize. | 
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发表于 2007-1-21 20:34:00
