[揽瓜阁逻辑小分队] day104

Ysandre · 发表于 2023-1-1 13:26:42

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Day 104
1. 鱼和水污染
一个州长提名 A 竞选州长，而之前有前任州长提名的人选在大选中赢了。所以得出结论这次这个获得州长提名的人赢的可能性也很大。Flaw
2. 农民种柑橘
农民在果园里种柑橘，柑橘晚上的时候经常掉，导致产量减少，一个政府就想要开发果园周围的 wetland 来种柑橘，但是农民纷纷反对，问原因。
3. 犯罪率
The violent crime rate (number of violent crimes per 1,000 residents) in Meadowbrook is 60 percent higher now than it was four years ago. The corresponding increase for Parkdale is only 10 percent. These figures support the conclusion that residents of Meadowbrook are more likely to become victims of violent crime than are residents of Parkdale.
The argument above is flawed because it fails to take into account
A. Changes in the population density of both Meadowbrook and Parkdale over the past four years.
B. How the rate of population growth in Meadowbrook over the past four years compares to the corresponding rate for Parkdale
C. The ratio of violent to nonviolent crimes committed during the past four years in Meadowbrook and Parkdale
D. The violent crime rates in Meadowbrook and Parkdale four years ago
E. How Meadowbrooks’ expenditures for crime prevention over the past four years compare to Parkdale’s expenditures.

Serenatt · 发表于 2023-1-1 13:45:14

看一下！

Serenatt · 发表于 2023-1-1 13:55:25

Day 104
1.       鱼和水污染
一个州长提名 A 竞选州长，而之前有前任州长提名的人选在大选中赢了。所以得出结论这次这个获得州长提名的人赢的可能性也很大。Flaw

P：之前提名的人在大选中赢了，当上了州长
C：所以这次提名的人很可能也会赢
Q：逻辑漏洞
方向：错误地认为之前的事儿还能适用于现在的情况
【答案：认为过去发生过的现象现在也能发生】

2.       农民种柑橘
农民在果园里种柑橘，柑橘晚上的时候经常掉，导致产量减少，一个政府就想要开发果园周围的 wetland 来种柑橘，但是农民纷纷反对，问原因。

方向：原因要说到这个wetland的重要性
【答案：wetland 可以避免果园晚上的温度降得过低】

3.       犯罪率
The violent crime rate (number of violent crimes per 1,000 residents) in Meadowbrook is 60 percent higher now than it was four years ago. The corresponding increase for Parkdale is only 10 percent. These figures support the conclusion that residents of Meadowbrook are more likely to become victims of violent crime than are residents of Parkdale.
The argument above is flawed because it fails to take into account
A.       Changes in the population density of both Meadowbrook and Parkdale over the past four years.【人口数量变化无关】
B.       How the rate of population growth in Meadowbrook over the past four years compares to the corresponding rate for Parkdale【人口数量变化也无关】
C.       The ratio of violent to nonviolent crimes committed during the past four years in Meadowbrook and Parkdale【没犯罪的无关】
D.       The violent crime rates in Meadowbrook and Parkdale four years ago【bingo，没有考虑之前的情况】
E.       How Meadowbrooks’ expenditures for crime prevention over the past four years compare to Parkdale’s expenditures.【跟expenditure无关】

P：M地现在的犯罪率比4年前的高60%
P：P地的增长只有10%
C：所以M地的人比P的的人更爱犯罪
Q：flaw
方向：没有考虑到之前犯罪基数的问题
答案：D

Ak777 · 发表于 2023-1-1 14:03:28

同意！

Ak777 · 发表于 2023-1-1 14:13:27

Day 104
1.       鱼和水污染
一个州长提名 A 竞选州长，而之前有前任州长提名的人选在大选中赢了。所以得出结论这次这个获得州长提名的人赢的可能性也很大。Flaw
-找出一些，获前任州长提名与最终大选胜利无关的因素

2.       农民种柑橘
农民在果园里种柑橘，柑橘晚上的时候经常掉，导致产量减少，一个政府就想要开发果园周围的 wetland 来种柑橘，但是农民纷纷反对，问原因。
-开发wetland丢了西瓜捡芝麻。wetland有一些动物/植物/irrigation对果园的柑橘生长非常重要/wetland中有些经济作物远超柑橘

3.       犯罪率
The violent crime rate (number of violent crimes per 1,000 residents) in Meadowbrook is 60 percent higher now than it was four years ago. The corresponding increase for Parkdale is only 10 percent. These figures support the conclusion that residents of Meadowbrook are more likely to become victims of violent crime than are residents of Parkdale.
The argument above is flawed because it fails to take into account
A.       Changes in the population density of both Meadowbrook and Parkdale over the past four years.
B.       How the rate of population growth in Meadowbrook over the past four years compares to the corresponding rate for Parkdale
C.       The ratio of violent to nonviolent crimes committed during the past four years in Meadowbrook and Parkdale
D.       The violent crime rates in Meadowbrook and Parkdale four years ago
E.       How Meadowbrooks’ expenditures for crime prevention over the past four years compare to Parkdale’s expenditures.

-D 题干是犯罪率的增长率，而不是犯罪率。涨的多不等于现在就多，需要知道四年前是多少，

PennyWen95 · 发表于 2023-1-1 17:47:13

看一下！

PennyWen95 · 发表于 2023-1-1 18:01:01

[揽瓜阁逻辑小分队] day104
Day 104
1.       鱼和水污染
一个州长提名 A 竞选州长，而之前有前任州长提名的人选在大选中赢了。所以得出结论这次这个获得州长提名的人赢的可能性也很大。Flaw

Flaw: 是因为它因而不是州长提名。之前的参选人本身的能力和优势就很强，就算没有州长提名也可以大选成功。
认为过去发生过的现象现在也能发生

2.       农民种柑橘
农民在果园里种柑橘，柑橘晚上的时候经常掉，导致产量减少，一个政府就想要开发果园周围的 wetland 来种柑橘，但是农民纷纷反对，问原因。
Wetland有其他用途，如果用来种柑橘，可能会导致负面影响。
wetland 可以避免果园晚上的温度降得过低

3.       犯罪率
The violent crime rate (number of violent crimes per 1,000 residents) in Meadowbrook is 60 percent higher now than it was four years ago. The corresponding increase for Parkdale is only 10 percent. These figures support the conclusion that residents of Meadowbrook are more likely to become victims of violent crime than are residents of Parkdale.
The argument above is flawed because it fails to take into account
A.       Changes in the population density of both Meadowbrook and Parkdale over the past four years.
B.       How the rate of population growth in Meadowbrook over the past four years compares to the corresponding rate for Parkdale
C.       The ratio of violent to nonviolent crimes committed during the past four years in Meadowbrook and Parkdale
D.       The violent crime rates in Meadowbrook and Parkdale four years ago
E.       How Meadowbrooks’ expenditures for crime prevention over the past four years compare to Parkdale’s expenditures.

PBkk · 发表于 2023-1-1 19:10:05

看一下！

PBkk · 发表于 2023-1-1 19:18:38

Day 104
1.       鱼和水污染
一个州长提名 A 竞选州长，而之前有前任州长提名的人选在大选中赢了。所以得出结论这次这个获得州长提名的人赢的可能性也很大。Flaw相关因果
前任州长提名的人中，并不代表这次就会中。用前次结论比拟这次，而关系并不统一。
Weaken:
原理：他因：赢的原理和州长提名没关系；
因果关系：州长提名大多数不会赢

2.       农民种柑橘
农民在果园里种柑橘，柑橘晚上的时候经常掉，导致产量减少，一个政府就想要开发果园周围的 wetland 来种柑橘，但是农民纷纷反对，问原因。

C: 农民纷纷反对
Weaken:
原理：
否定性副作用：副作用导致现有的柑橘产量进一步降低
可操作性：wetland因为某种元素导致更不能种柑橘

3.       犯罪率
The violent crime rate (number of violent crimes per 1,000 residents) in Meadowbrook is 60 percent higher now than it was four years ago. The corresponding increase for Parkdale is only 10 percent. These figures support the conclusion that residents of Meadowbrook are more likely to become victims of violent crime than are residents of Parkdale.
The argument above is flawed because it fails to take into account
A.       Changes in the population density of both Meadowbrook and Parkdale over the past four years.
B.       How the rate of population growth in Meadowbrook over the past four years compares to the corresponding rate for Parkdale
C.       The ratio of violent to nonviolent crimes committed during the past four years in Meadowbrook and Parkdale
D.       The violent crime rates in Meadowbrook and Parkdale four years ago
E.       How Meadowbrooks’ expenditures for crime prevention over the past four years compare to Parkdale’s expenditures.

P: violent crime rate： M增长60%，P增长10%
C: M的居民更容易受到伤害

Weaken：
- 原理：增长量和绝对量取决于基数：如果基数低，则不一定新的绝对数大；有可能victims of M 一直都是同一拨人

xxxx44 · 发表于 2023-1-1 20:18:12

DAY 104
1.
P: 某州长提名A竞选州长
C: 此前有前任州长提名的人选胜出，所以这次赢得几率很大
flaw：false analogy，此前提名的人选竞争力和A相比如何？前任州长的支持度和现任州长的支持度相比如何？

2.
P：某果园的柑橘晚上落果导致产量减少
C: 果农反对政府关于开发周围湿地种植柑橘的提议
explanation：周围的土壤并不适合种植柑橘

3.
P: M地的犯罪率比四年前上升60%， P地只有10%，
C: M地居民的人身安全受到威胁更大
flaw： A 两地人口基数变化 B 两地四年间人口增长率 C 两地四年内暴力犯罪和非暴力犯罪比例 D 四年前两地犯罪率 E 两地在预防犯罪支出的比较

[揽瓜阁逻辑小分队] day104

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