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Hi 大家好，閱讀打卡訓練D3.
Materials/sources: OG2020
Passage:
In 1971 researchers hoping to predict earthquakes in the short term by identifying precursory phenomena (those that occur a few days before large quakes but not otherwise) turned their attention to changes
(5)
in seismic waves that had been detected prior to earthquakes. An explanation for such changes was offered by “dilatancy theory,” based on a well-known phenomenon observed in rocks in the laboratory: as stress builds, microfractures in rock close,
(10)
decreasing the rock’s volume. But as stress continues to increase, the rock begins to crack and expand in volume, allowing groundwater to seep in, weakening the rock. According to this theory, such effects could lead to several precursory phenomena in
(15)
the field, including a change in the velocity of seismic waves, and an increase in small, nearby tremors.
Researchers initially reported success in identifying these possible precursors, but subsequent analyses of their data proved disheartening. Seismic waves
(20)
with unusual velocities were recorded before some earthquakes, but while the historical record confirms that most large earthquakes are preceded by minor tremors, these foreshocks indicate nothing about the magnitude of an impending quake and are
(25)
indistinguishable from other minor tremors that occur without large earthquakes.
In the 1980s, some researchers turned their efforts from short-term to long-term prediction. Noting that earthquakes tend to occur repeatedly in
(30)
certain regions, Lindh and Baker attempted to identify patterns of recurrence, or earthquake cycles, on which to base predictions. In a study of earthquake-prone sites along the San Andreas Fault, they determined that quakes occurred at intervals of approximately 22
(35)
years near one site and concluded that there was a 95 percent probability of an earthquake in that area by 1992. The earthquake did not occur within the time frame predicted, however.
Evidence against the kind of regular
(40)
earthquake cycles that Lindh and Baker tried to establish has come from a relatively new field, paleoseismology. Paleoseismologists have unearthed and dated geological features such as fault scarps that were caused by
(45)
earthquakes thousands of years ago. They have determined that the average interval between ten earthquakes that took place at one site along the San Andreas Fault in the past two millennia was 132 years, but individual intervals ranged greatly,
(50)
簡化
In 1971 researchers hoping to predict earthquakes in the short term by identifying precursory phenomena (those that occur a few days before large quakes but not otherwise) turned their attention to changes in seismic waves that had been detected prior to earthquakes. (researchers turned their attention to changes in seismic waves, 開頭就說這些研究人員轉移焦點在SW的改變 - 在這裡的時候先想了下為什麼作者要寫這段換: 要說明他們轉移焦點？還是要說之前的方法為什麼不成功，為什麼現在的方法可行)
An explanation for such changes was offered by “dilatancy theory,” based on a well-known phenomenon observed in rocks in the laboratory: as stress builds, microfractures in rock close,
decreasing the rock’s volume. But as stress continues to increase, the rock begins to crack and expand in volume, allowing groundwater to seep in, weakening the rock. According to this theory, such effects could lead to several precursory phenomena in the field, including a change in the velocity of seismic waves, and an increase in small, nearby tremors. (寫下為什麼會轉換研究焦點，有個BUT - 感覺會是考點 - 給出了細節，什麼樣的change - 寫這段話的目的: 接續作者的topic sentence)Researchers initially reported success in identifying these possible precursors, but subsequent analyses of their data proved disheartening. (又出現了轉折: 研究方法的轉換 -> 後面的研究方法失敗 作者寫這段話的目的: 說明研究焦點轉移後的結果 *研究的對象轉換，不代表想要研究(期待)的結果就能出現) Seismic waves with unusual velocities were recorded before some earthquakes, but while the historical record confirms that most large earthquakes are preceded by minor tremors, these foreshocks indicate nothing about the magnitude of an impending quake and are indistinguishable from other minor tremors that occur without large earthquakes. (說明研究為什麼失敗 - 考點 -)
In the 1980s, some researchers turned their efforts from short-term to long-term prediction. (又出現了新的研究方法) Noting that earthquakes tend to occur repeatedly in certain regions, Lindh and Baker attempted to identify patterns of recurrence, or earthquake cycles, on which to base predictions. (L & B 如何研究)In a study of earthquake-prone sites along the San Andreas Fault, they determined that quakes occurred at intervals of approximately 22 years near one site and concluded that there was a 95 percent probability of an earthquake in that area by 1992. The earthquake did not occur within the time frame predicted, however. (說明了這研究結果又失敗了) Evidence against the kind of regular earthquake cycles that Lindh and Baker tried to establish has come from a relatively new field, paleoseismology. Paleoseismologists have unearthed and dated geological features such as fault scarps that were caused by earthquakes thousands of years ago. They have determined that the average interval between ten earthquakes that took place at one site along the San Andreas Fault in the past two millennia was 132 years, but individual intervals ranged greatly from 44 to 332 years. (這段說明為什麼研究long-term prediction的研究失敗了)
總結
第一段: 研究短期地震預測的研究人員，轉換研究方法。以及為什麼轉換研究方法
第二段: 說明這研究不成功。還有不成功的原因
第三段: 又介紹了一種研究地震預測的方法，但以失敗告終。
第四段: 說明為什麼第三段提及的方法會以失敗收場。
1. The passage is primarily concerned with
A. explaining why one method of earthquake prediction has proven more practicable than an alternative method
B. suggesting that accurate earthquake forecasting must combine elements of long-term and short-term prediction
C. challenging the usefulness of dilatancy theory for explaining the occurrence of precursory phenomena
D. discussing the deficiency of two methods by which researchers have attempted to predict the occurrence of earthquakes （同大意分析）
E. describing the development of methods for establishing patterns in the occurrence of past earthquakes (覺得這個選項是很強的干擾，但文章強調的是去預測earthquakes. 此外文章確實describe the methods. 但是去說明預測地震，不是去建立過往地震出現的類型）
2. According to the passage, laboratory evidence concerning the effects of stress on rocks might help account for
A. differences in magnitude among earthquakes
B. certain phenomena that occur prior to earthquakes (定位第二段Dilantacy theory, 這是用來說明為什麼研究重心的轉移，因為這理論裡提到了 ccording to this theory, such effects could lead to several precursory phenomena in the field, including a change in the velocity of seismic waves, and an increase in small, nearby tremors)
C. variations in the intervals between earthquakes in a particular area
D. differences in the frequency with which earthquakes occur in various areas
E. the unreliability of short-term earthquake predictions
3. It can be inferred from the passage that one problem with using precursory phenomena to predict earthquakes is that minor tremors
A. typically occur some distance from the sites of the large earthquakes that follow them
B. are directly linked to the mechanisms that cause earthquakes
C. are difficult to distinguish from major tremors
D. have proven difficult to measure accurately
E. are not always followed by large earthquakes (第二段，定位句these foreshocks indicate nothing about the magnitude of an impending quake and are indistinguishable from other minor tremors that occur without large earthquakes)
4. According to the passage, some researchers based their research about long-term earthquake prediction on which of the following facts?
A. The historical record confirms that most earthquakes have been preceded by minor tremors.
B. The average interval between earthquakes in one region of the San Andreas Fault is 132 years.
C. Some regions tend to be the site of numerous earthquakes over the course of many years. (定位第三段，L & B兩個人)
D. Changes in the volume of rock can occur as a result of building stress and can lead to the weakening of rock.
E. Paleoseismologists have been able to unearth and date geological features caused by past earthquakes. (強干擾項，Paleoseismologists是去解釋為什麼 L & B的研究失敗了，不是本身研究long-term earthquake的人)
5. The passage suggests which of the following about the paleoseismologists’ findings described in lines 42–50?
A. They suggest that the frequency with which earthquakes occurred at a particular site decreased significantly over the past two millennia.
B. They suggest that paleoseismologists may someday be able to make reasonably accurate long-term earthquake predictions.
C. They suggest that researchers may someday be able to determine which past occurrences of minor tremors were actually followed by large earthquakes.
D. They suggest that the recurrence of earthquakes in earthquake-prone sites is too irregular to serve as a basis for earthquake prediction. (定位最後一段最後一句 they determined (discovered))
E. They indicate that researchers attempting to develop long-term methods of earthquake prediction have overlooked important evidence concerning the causes of earthquakes.
6. The author implies which of the following about the ability of the researchers mentioned in line 18 to predict earthquakes?
A. They can identify when an earthquake is likely to occur but not how large it will be.
B. They can identify the regions where earthquakes are likely to occur but not when they will occur.
C. They are unable to determine either the time or the place that earthquakes are likely to occur. (定位第二段解釋為什麼研究失敗的原因)
D. They are likely to be more accurate at short-term earthquake prediction than at long-term earthquake prediction.
E. They can determine the regions where earthquakes have occurred in the past but not the regions where they are likely to occur in the future.
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发表于 2022-3-10 10:45:15
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