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两个问题求分析：
1.第4题为什么信心十足地选E？（题目见下面）
2.第一段里面出现的wind跟link of solar activity and weather 有什么关系？
Since the 1850s researchers have tried to show that variations in seasonal weather are connected in some ways with sunspots ,the outward sign of an increase in the Sun's activity. However, sciences lacked evidence supporting such a link until the mid-1980s,when van Loon and Labitzke compiled statistical evidence suggesting that a link exists and that it involves winds in the upper atmosphere above the equator which reverse their direction，from east to west or west to east, every twelve to fifteen months. This phenomenon is called the quasi-biennial oscillation(QBO),and although meteorologists have known about the QBO since the 1950s,until the 1980s no one recognized a subtle but statistically significant link between the QBO and certain pattern of weather. When the west to east direction of winds in the upper atmosphere coincides with periods of high solar activity that occur approximately every eleven years, winters in the eastern and central United States are very cold.
On this basis, some meteorologists predicted that the winter of 1988-1989 in the United States would be severe. However, the winter was a mild one overall, and the meteorologists' attempt to make the connection between the Sun and weather on the Earth appeared unsuccessful, until Barston and Liverzey proposed a hypothesis explaining why the prediction had failed. They argued that the prediction had not taken into account another important element in the climate: the more or less regular pattern of fluctuations in the temperature of the surface waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean
.
Barston and Livezey noted that when the water temperature is abnormally high-the phenomenon called EL Nino—the changces of cold winter weather over North America increase. The opposite situation, when surface temperatures are well below normal—La Nina—is far less common.In fact, until late 1988 no one had seen the combination of La Nina, westerly winds in the upper atmosphere, and high solar activity. Thus, according to Barston and Livezey,La Nina cancelled out the effect of the other two climatic factors and caused the mild winter of 1988-1989.Although this hypothesis is plausible, much research remains to be done before meteorologists can establish and explain the effects of increased solar activity on seasonal weather changes.
段落分析：
一段：说seasonal weather和Sun's activity存在connection.(风向winds direction是怎么回事？是太阳活动影响风向，风向影响了weather吗？文中没体现出来啊。)
二段：提出与上段结论（weather和solar activity存在link）不一致的事实。并提出一个假设——考虑太平洋的水温（another factor）对weather的影响。
三段：详细介绍太平洋的水温与weather的关系。说明二段的事实和理论（weather和solar activity存在link）有出入，是因为太平洋水温这个factor的影响。尽管这个假说hrpothesis值得称赞，要建立和解释“increased solar activity对seasonal weather 的影响”，还有很多to be done.（即假说只是support,但还不足以proof二者的link）
1.Which of the following most accurately describes the organization of the passage?
整体把握文章的态度和转折。
A. A hypothesis is presented, a theory is constructed on the basis of the hypothesis, and then further research to expand the scope of the theory is proposed.
B.A hypothesis is presented, an example that contradicts it is described, and then a hypothesis accounting for the apparent contradiction is proposed.
C.Two opposing hypotheses are stated, and evidence confirming one of the hypotheses is considered.
D. A phenomenon is described, a prediction about that phenomenon is made, and evidence confirming the accuracy of the prediction is presented.
E. A prediction about a phenomenon is detailed and evaluated, and evidence demonstrating the inaccuracy of the prediction is presented.
2.The passage provides information to support which of the following statement about La Nina?
意义范围。两个破折号，中间是插入语。
A. Its occurrences is more likely to coincide with the periods of high solar activity rather than low solar activity.
B. It is more likely to occur when the winds in the upper atmosphere above the equator are blowing from the west rather than from the east.
C. It occurs more frequently than do shifts in the winds in the upper atmosphere above the equator.
D. It occurs less frequently than does increased solar activity.
E. It occurs less frequently than does EL Nino.
3.???The author of the passage would most likely agree with which of the following statements about the link between increased solar activity and certain seasonal weather changes on the Earth?
A. Because the evidence supporting such a link is questionable, future research in this particular area does not looking promising.
B. Because it is unlikely that such a link can be definitely established, scientists should concentrate their efforts on investigating the role La Nina and other climatic factors play in influencing global weather patterns.
C. Although some circumstantial evidence suggests that such a link exists, it is unlikely that future research will be able to confirm the existence of this link.
D. There is evidence supporting the existence of such a link, but without further scientific investigation that evidence cannot be considered proof that such a link exists.
E.Since the evidence clearly supports the existence of such a link, further research should focus on determing the implications of this link for the accurate prediction of changes in globle weather patterns.立场不对。
4.The passage provides information to support which of the following statements about the occurence of very cold winters in the eastern and central United States?
题干问得是eastern and central的，文中提Pacific Ocean的说的都是North American的weather；提到solar activity和wind的都是说的eastern and central US的weather。所以我认为这个题的答案应该是跟Pacific Ocean无关，跟太阳活动有关的。求分析，怎样才能信心十足地选出E？
A. Such winter are most likely to occur if the winds in the winds in the upper atmosphere over the equator blow from the east rather than from the west.
B.Such winters are most likely to occur if increased activity of the Sun coincides with the appearance of La Nina.
C.Such winters are less likely to occur if increased activity of the Sun coincides with the appearance of El Nino.
D. Such winters are less likely to occure if there is an increase in the number of sunspots on the surface of the Sun.
E. Such winters are less likely to occur if there is a drop in the temperature of the surface waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean.
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发表于 2011-7-26 17:49:36
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