因果关系及答题方向总结

zhaokai09 · 发表于 2015-9-27 12:07:36

直奔主题
果因关系：题干特征在解释一个现象或者事实，一般前提是现象或者事实，结论是原因
答案特征：涉及果或者解释果，这里的解释果其实可以理解为干扰因素或者它因

因果关系：题干特征由事实得出了一个结论，一般前提是事实，结论是相关推理
答案特征：涉及因或者指出干扰因素

果因的两个例子：
Which of the following most logically completes the argument?
Ferber’s syndrome, a viral disease that frequently affects cattle, is transmitted to these animals through infected feed. Even though chickens commercially raised for meat are often fed the type of feed identified as the source of infection in cattle, Ferber’s syndrome is only rarely observed in chickens. This fact, however, does not indicate that most chickens are immune to the virus that causes Ferber’s syndrome, since .

(A)  chickens and cattle are not the only kinds of farm animal that are typically fed the type of feed liable to be contaminated with the virus that causes Ferber’s syndrome
(B)  Ferber’s syndrome has been found in animals that have not been fed the type of feed liable to be contaminated with the virus that can cause the disease
(C)  resistance to some infectious organisms such as the virus that causes Ferber’s syndrome can be acquired by exposure to a closely related infectious organism
(D)  chickens and cattle take more than a year to show symptoms of Ferber’s syndrome, and chickens commercially raised for meat, unlike cattle, are generally brought to market during the first year of life
(E)  the type of feed liable to be infected with the virus that causes Ferber’s syndrome generally constitutes a larger proportion of the diet of commercially raised chickens than of commercially raised cattle

答案D，可以看出其实解释现象的原因，其实可以看做是它因

A major network news organization experienced a drop in viewership in the week following the airing of a controversial report on the economy. The network also received a very large number of complaints regarding the report. The network, however, maintains that negative reactions to the report had nothing to do with its loss of viewers.

Which of the following, if true, most strongly supports the network’s position?
(A)  The other major network news organizations reported similar reductions in viewership during the same week.
(B)  The viewers who registered complaints with the network were regular viewers of the news organization’s programs.
(C)  Major network news organizations publicly attribute drops in viewership to their own reports only when they receive complaints about those reports.
(D)  This was not the first time that this network news organization has aired a controversial report on the economy that has inspired viewers to complain to the network.
(E)  Most network news viewers rely on network news broadcasts as their primary source of information regarding the economy.

答案A：答案特征提到了果。

因果的两个例子：
The Maxilux car company’s design for its new luxury model, the Max 100, included a special design for the tires that was intended to complement the model’s image. The winning bid for supplying these tires was submitted by Rubco. Analysts concluded that the bid would only just cover Rubco’s costs on the tires, but Rubco executives claim that winning the bid will actually make a profit for the company.

Which of the following, if true, most strongly justifies the claim made by Rubco’s executives?
(A)  In any Maxilux model, the spare tire is exactly the same make and model as the tires that are mounted on the wheels.
(B) Rubco holds exclusive contracts  to supply Maxilux with the tires for a number of other models made by Maxilux.
(C)  The production facilities for the Max 100 and those for the tires to be supplied by Rubco are located very near each other.
(D) When people who have purchased a carefully designed luxury automobile need to replace a worn part of it, they almost invariably replace it with a part of exactly the same make and type.
(E)  When Maxilux awarded the tire contract to Rubco, the only criterion on which Rubco’s bid was clearly ahead of its competitors’ bids was price.

答案D，答案方向：干扰因素

Most bicycle helmets provide good protection for the top and back of the head, but little or no protection for the temple regions on the sides of the head. A study of head injuries resulting from bicycle accidents showed that a large proportion were caused by blows to the temple area. Therefore, if bicycle helmets protected this area, the risk of serious head injury in bicycle accidents would be greatly reduced, especially since       .

(A)  among the bicyclists included in the study’s sample of head injuries, only a very small proportion had been wearing a helmet at the time of their accident
(B)  even those bicyclists who regularly wear helmets have a poor understanding of the degree and kind of protection that helmets afford
(C)  a helmet that included protection for the temples would have to be somewhat larger and heavier than current helmets
(D)  the bone in the temple area is relatively thin and impacts in that area are thus very likely to cause brain injury
(E)  bicyclists generally land on their arm or shoulder when they fall to the side, which reduces the likelihood of severe impacts on the side of the head

答案方向：与因有关，从这里的可以看到其实这种答案方向是连接因果，就是解决断桥问题

我觉得helr方法比较重要的一点就是不要纠结于分类，其实有些题目可以有多个分类的。

例如：上面果因关系中第一道题也可以分为类比的，体会下，它是将cattle和chicken类比的，答案也提到了两者之间的差别。条条大路通罗马。

个人根据helr方法的一点总结。大家一起讨论

alzn2765 · 发表于 2015-9-27 12:52:00

果因的两个例子：
Which of the following most logically completes the argument?
Ferber’s syndrome, a viral disease that frequently affects cattle, is transmitted to these animals through infected feed. Even though chickens commercially raised for meat are often fed the type of feed identified as the source of infection in cattle, Ferber’s syndrome is only rarely observed in chickens. This fact, however, does not indicate that most chickens are immune to the virus that causes Ferber’s syndrome, since .

(A)  chickens and cattle are not the only kinds of farm animal that are typically fed the type of feed liable to be contaminated with the virus that causes Ferber’s syndrome
(B)  Ferber’s syndrome has been found in animals that have not been fed the type of feed liable to be contaminated with the virus that can cause the disease
(C)  resistance to some infectious organisms such as the virus that causes Ferber’s syndrome can be acquired by exposure to a closely related infectious organism
(D)  chickens and cattle take more than a year to show symptoms of Ferber’s syndrome, and chickens commercially raised for meat, unlike cattle, are generally brought to market during the first year of life
(E)  the type of feed liable to be infected with the virus that causes Ferber’s syndrome generally constitutes a larger proportion of the diet of commercially raised chickens than of commercially raised cattle

答案D，可以看出其实解释现象的原因，其实可以看做是它因

这题我赞同，分成“类比”比较容易理解，直接找牛和鸡的不同点就好了。

A major network news organization experienced a drop in viewership in the week following the airing of a controversial report on the economy. The network also received a very large number of complaints regarding the report. The network, however, maintains that negative reactions to the report had nothing to do with its loss of viewers.

Which of the following, if true, most strongly supports the network’s position?
(A)  The other major network news organizations reported similar reductions in viewership during the same week.
(B)  The viewers who registered complaints with the network were regular viewers of the news organization’s programs.
(C)  Major network news organizations publicly attribute drops in viewership to their own reports only when they receive complaints about those reports.
(D)  This was not the first time that this network news organization has aired a controversial report on the economy that has inspired viewers to complain to the network.
(E)  Most network news viewers rely on network news broadcasts as their primary source of information regarding the economy.

答案A：答案特征提到了果。
这题应该是典型的果因推理
前提（果）：A major network news organization experienced a drop in viewership in the week
结论（因）：the airing of a controversial report on the economy

果--->因
如果可以证明（多数情况都是举一个反例）：果且非因则可以证明要么“因”根本不是“因”，即使是“因”也不是唯一“因”
A中：
果：The other major network news organizations reported similar reductions in viewership during the same week.
非因：从题干可知“the airing of a controversial report on the economy”显然是“A major network”的个体行为（重点单词就是controversial，如果每个network都持该观点就没有controversial了）

后面两个因果推理的例子还有其他分类方法吗？请赐教。

zhaokai09 · 发表于 2015-9-27 15:39:29

看了你的问题，我仔细想了想，后面那两个例子实在想不到其他分类
helr的方法也是讲求先看是不是样本、类比、相关因果、或者方案。我这几天把OG16过了一遍之后，发现基本没有提涉及样本大小或者代表性的问题，而相关因果的结论特征明显一眼就可以看出来，所以，只要每个题只要先分析下是不是类比和方案就行了

zhaokai09 · 发表于 2015-9-27 15:41:17

Which of the following most logically completes the argument?

The growing popularity of computer-based activities was widely predicted to result in a corresponding decline in television viewing. Recent studies have found that, in the United States, people who own computers watch, on average, significantly less television than people who do not own computers. In itself, however, this finding does very little to show that computer use tends to reduce television viewing time, since_______.

(A) many people who watch little or no television do not own a computer.
(B) even though most computer owners in the United States watch significantly less television than the national average, some computer owners watch far more television than the national average.
(C) computer owners in the United States predominately belong to a demographic group that have long been known to spend less time watching television than the population as a whole does.
(D) many computer owners in the United States have enough leisure time that spending significant amounts of time on the computer still leaves ample time for watching television.
(E) many people use their computers primarily for tasks such as correspondence that can be done more rapidly on the computer, and doing so leaves more leisure time for watching television.

类似这种样本代表性问题，也可用因果关系来解题，一看就是和因相关或它因，一起讨论

zhaokai09 · 发表于 2015-9-27 15:42:32

其实，我作这些分类只是为了快速解题，排除无关，大多题目用我们的common-sense就可以解决

zhaokai09 · 发表于 2015-9-27 15:48:54

太难的题，我也不想去分析，因为收益太小了，哈哈

OG16-106
Between 1980 and 2000 the sea otter population of the Aleutian Islands declined precipitously. There were no signs of disease or malnutrition, so there was probably an increase in the number of otters being eaten by predators. Orcas will eat otters when seals, their normal prey, are unavailable, and the Aleutian Islands seal population declined dramatically in the 1980s. Therefore, orcas were most likely the immediate cause of the otter population decline.

Which of the following, if true, most strengthens the argument?

(A) The population of sea urchins, the main food of sea otters, has increased since the sea otter population declined.
(B) Seals do not eat sea otters, nor do they compete with sea otters for food.
(C) Most of the surviving sea otters live in a bay that is inaccessible to orcas.
(D) The population of orcas in the Aleutian Islands has declined since the 1980s.
(E) An increase in commercial fishing near the Aleutian Islands in the 1980s caused a slight decline in the population of the fish that seals use for food.

类似于这个题，答案选C，当时我做题的时候就把C当做无关排除了，不知道针对这个题你有什么好办法

alzn2765 · 发表于 2015-9-27 16:10:48

zhaokai09 发表于 2015-9-27 15:41
Which of the following most logically completes the argument?

The growing popularity of computer-ba ...

Helr的统计枚举类中的样本代表性问题，其实就是“质疑假设类”

任何涉及到统计数据的推理，都必须有一个共同的Assumption：样本足够有代表性。

削弱结论可以通过质疑这个Assumption达到目的。而可以有Assumption的推理一定是有前提有结论的推理，因果或者果因推理都属于此类。所以，“质疑假设类”一定跟因果或者果因推理有交集，这不奇怪。

alzn2765 · 发表于 2015-9-27 16:29:52

zhaokai09 发表于 2015-9-27 15:48
太难的题，我也不想去分析，因为收益太小了，哈哈

OG16-106

果因推理找加强

加强套路无外乎3种：
1. 加强“唯一性”，比如非因非果或者果且非因
2. Supportor类Assumption“补桥”
3. Defender类Assumption排除其他可能的削弱：非因果倒置，非他因，数据有效，样本有效等等。

这题用给事实的猜原因的方法出题，如果题干中不涉及数字，那么加强很可能第一种或者直接给一个基于事实的反例。

前提（果）：the otter population decline
结论（因）：orcas

果--->因
逆否命题是非因--->非果
非因：No orcas
非果：the otter population NOT decline

C选项中：
“Most of the surviving sea otters”对应“the otter population NOT decline”；
“No orcas”对应“ inaccessible to orcas”

所以C就是非因非果的加强（反例）。

一般事实类果因推理削弱的话CQ还多一些，加强的话CQ很少，因为不是人为设计的实验，很多实验类可能的“实验设计缺陷”都没有，导致 Defender类Assumption基本都不可以用。基本就只能往非因非果的事实类反例去找（DDT导致鸟数量减少那题跟这题就是“换壳”题，连正确选项都是一样的，只不过这个是空间上不同的反例，那个是时间上不同的反例）。

zhaokai09 · 发表于 2015-9-27 16:59:54

alzn2765 发表于 2015-9-27 16:29
果因推理找加强

加强套路无外乎3种：

明白了，多谢多谢

zhaokai09 · 发表于 2015-9-27 17:07:22

好像OG16上面出现还有几道非因非果的题目，我速度去看看

因果关系及答题方向总结

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