提纲：1. 最近的俱乐部距离65km就代表它在本地就会有市场吗？
2. jazz festival, musicians and night program就能表示jazz在这儿受欢迎吗？
3. 全国的情况能代表当地的情况吗？开俱乐部一定能赚钱吗？
164. The following was written by a group of developersin the city of Monroe.
"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendouslyprofitable enterprise. At present, the nearest jazz club is over 60 miles awayfrom Monroe; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local marketall to itself. In addition, there is ample evidence of the popularity of jazzin Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer,several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radioprogram in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly.' Finally, a nationwide study indicates thatthe typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. Wetherefore predict that the C Note cannot help but make money."
Write a response in which you discuss whatquestions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the predictionand the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain howthe answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
In the argument, the developers in the cityof Monroe recommend that a jazz music club should be set upin Monroe which will be profitable. Eventhough it may appears plausible at a cursory glance, in-depth scrutiny revealsthat it suffers from some flaw and many questions should be answered to make ittenable. First and foremost, one question needs tobe answered is that does the fact that the nearest jazz club is over 60 milesaway from Monroe indicate that the jazz club would have great local market aspredicted? This is questionable. Since no evidence and data is presented, it islikely that the local people do not show any passion and enthusiasm for jazzwhich is a good explanation that why no jazz club locates here. In other words,were people in Monroe are fascinated at jazz, no less than one jazz club musthave been here. Considering of this, unless the developers provide evidencethat local people are fond of jazz music, they cannot justifiable convince methat the new jazz club will be favored by local people.
Moreover, the argument is dubious in that anotherquestion remains: does the fact that over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazzfestival last summer and several famous musicians live in Monroe as well asthat the highest-rate night program is “jazz Nightly” are good indications thatjazz is popular in Monroe? For one thing, since no information about the100,000 people who attending the jazz festival is told, it is entirely possiblethat the majority of these people are tourists who happen to visit here. Foranother, many famous musicians choose to live in Monroe probably mainly due tothe good environment and traffic condition. More likely is that they consideredthat Monroe is quiet without the disturbance of noisy jazz overnight. In thislight, each of these scenarios mentioned above, if true, would help to underminethe validity of this argument. To substantiate this, the developers shouldprovide information concerning the jazz festival as well as factors that influencingmusicians’ determination to live in Monroe.
Finally, even conceding that the forgoingquestions can be evidenced, we cannot help wondering that does the trend of thenation necessarily reflect the condition in Monroe as well. Chances are thatpeople in Monroe spend less amount of money because of their low-income and thehighly expensive expense the jazz entertainment requires. Even if these peopleare readily to invest large sum of money on jazz, whether the club isprofitable is still a doubt. Since profit is a function of revenues andexpense, even though there may be considerable incomes, the expense of rentingplaces as salaries paid for employees might outweigh these revenues, whichrender it unprofitable in the end. In this case, in order to make the argument morepersuasive, the developers should pay attention to the costs of opening a newclub as well as the consumption habits.
In retrospect, it would be precipitous to come to theconclusion that a jazz club should be set up in Monroe. To bolster therecommendation, the developer ought to provide evidence to the three questions mentionedabove. Only by gasping the main questions of the argument could the author putforward a cogent and persuasive recommendation.
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发表于 2012-6-19 22:55:49
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