ChaseDream
搜索
返回列表 发新帖
查看: 1917|回复: 1
打印 上一主题 下一主题

OG的一道CR假设题!求解于各位路过的看官!谢谢!

[复制链接]
跳转到指定楼层
楼主
发表于 2011-10-26 22:57:41 | 只看该作者 回帖奖励 |倒序浏览 |阅读模式
Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the people in this country now report that they know someonewho is unemployed.


Sharon:But a normal,moderate level of unemployment is 5 percent,with one out of 20 workers unemployed.
So at any given time if a person knows approximately 50 workers , one or more will very likely be unemployed.
Sharon's argument relies on the assumption that
(A)normal levels of unemployment are rarely exceeded
(B)unemployment is not normally concentrated in geographically isolated segments of the population
(C)the number of people who each knows ome one who is unemployed is always higher than 90 percent of the population
(D)Roland is not consciously distorting the statistics he presents
(E)knowledge that a personal acquaintance is unemployed generates more fear of losing one's job than does knowledge of unemployment statistics








这道题该怎么思考呢··?逻辑链以及推理的gap在哪里啊..???

收藏收藏 收藏收藏
沙发
发表于 2011-10-26 23:11:53 | 只看该作者
one or more will very likely be unemployed 是5%*50=2.5 算出来的 这个等式成立的条件是均匀抽样 就是不会集中在一起
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 立即注册

Mark一下! 看一下! 顶楼主! 感谢分享! 快速回复:

手机版|ChaseDream|GMT+8, 2025-2-21 02:42
京公网安备11010202008513号 京ICP证101109号 京ICP备12012021号

ChaseDream 论坛

© 2003-2023 ChaseDream.com. All Rights Reserved.

返回顶部