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这道逻辑题看了半个小时还是没反映,谁能详细解答一下?

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楼主
发表于 2004-6-9 18:14:00 | 只看该作者

这道逻辑题看了半个小时还是没反映,谁能详细解答一下?

12. THE ORGANIZERS OF TOMORROW’S OUTDOOR CONCERT

  ANNOUNCED THAT IT WILL GO ON TOMORROW ON SCHEDULE


  UNLESS BAD WEATHER IS FORECAST OR TOO FEW ADVANCE


  TICKETS ARE SOLD. IF THE CONCERT IS CANCELED, REFUNDS


  WILL BE MADE TO TICKET HOLDERS. SINCE SOME TICKET


  HOLDERS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED REFUNDS EVEN THOUGH


  MORE THAN ENOUGH ADVANCE TICKETS WERE SOLD, IT MUST


  BE THE CASE THAT BAD WEATHER IS FORECAST.


  WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING IS AN ERROR OF REASONING


  CONTAINED IN THE ARGUMENT?


  (A) IT PROCEEDS AS IF A CONDITION, WHICH BY ITSELF IS


  ENOUGH TO GUARANTEE A CERTAIN RESULT, IS THE ONLY


  CONDITION UNDER WHICH THAT RESULT WOULD OCCUR.


  (B) IT BASES A CONCLUSION THAT IS KNOWN TO REQUIRE


  TWO CONDITIONS ON EVIDENCE THAT BEARS ON ONLY


  ONE OF THOSE CONDITIONS.


  (C) IT EXPLAINS ONE EVENT AS BEING CAUSED BY ANOTHER


  EVENT, EVEN THOUGH BOTH EVENTS MUST ACTUALLY


  HAVE BEEN CAUSED BY SOME THIRD, UNIDENTIFIED


  EVENT.


  (D) IT TREATS EVIDENCE FOR THE ABSENCE OF ONE CONDITION


  UNDER WHICH A CIRCUMSTANCE WOULD OCCUR


  AS CONCLUSIVE EVIDENCE THAT THAT CIRCUMSTANCE


  WILL NOT OCCUR.


  (E) EVIDENCE GIVEN TO SUPPORT THE CONCLUSION ACTUALLY


  UNDERMINES IT.

沙发
发表于 2004-6-9 18:29:00 | 只看该作者
居然是大写的?老兄,照顾一下吾等的眼睛,呵呵
板凳
发表于 2004-6-9 18:55:00 | 只看该作者
A
地板
 楼主| 发表于 2004-6-9 20:11:00 | 只看该作者

小写版本

12. The organizers of tomorrow’s outdoor concert

  announced that it will go on tomorrow on schedule

  unless bad weather is forecast or too few advance

  tickets are sold. If the concert is canceled, refunds

  will be made to ticket holders. Since some ticket

  holders have already been issued refunds even though

  more than enough advance tickets were sold, it must

  be the case that bad weather is forecast.

  Which of the following is an error of reasoning

  contained in the argument?

  (A) It proceeds as if a condition, which by itself is

  enough to guarantee a certain result, is the only

  condition under which that result would occur.

  (B) It bases a conclusion that is known to require

  two conditions on evidence that bears on only

  one of those conditions.

  (C) It explains one event as being caused by another

  event, even though both events must actually

  have been caused by some third, unidentified

  event.

  (D) It treats evidence for the absence of one condition

  under which a circumstance would occur

  as conclusive evidence that that circumstance

  will not occur.

  (E) Evidence given to support the conclusion actually

  undermines it.

5#
发表于 2004-6-9 21:16:00 | 只看该作者

充分当做必要条件的错误。选A


原文推理:1.cancel----bad weather or few ticket.     


                2.cancel-----refund


              所以: refund and  enough ticket-----bad weather


要BAD WEATHER 成立,根据1,必须满足两个条件:CANCEL AND ENOUGH TICKET。结论只给出REFUND AND ENOUGH TICKET。即要BAD WEATHER 成立,必须REFUND 推出CANCEL。而2只是CANCEL 推出REFUND。错误在充分条件当做必要条件。A便指出这错误


[此贴子已经被作者于2004-6-9 21:18:06编辑过]
6#
发表于 2004-6-10 01:02:00 | 只看该作者
lawyer_1, 没有明白你的推理过程,能讲清点吗
7#
发表于 2004-6-10 03:44:00 | 只看该作者
关键
8#
发表于 2004-6-10 03:56:00 | 只看该作者
关键是对1的理解:肯定CANCEL和否定 FEW TICKET,必肯定BAD WEATHER。也即CANCEL和 ENOUGH TICKET成立,BAD WEATHER才能成立。而原文却是由REFUND 和ENOUGH TICKET成立推出BAD WEATHER 成立。原文相当于认为REFUND成立,CANCEL也成立。而实际原文只是已知其否命题(CANCEL成立,REFUND也成立)。作者当做本命题成立,逆命题也成立。这种逻辑错误也是将充分条件当作必要条件的错误,即A
[此贴子已经被作者于2004-6-10 3:57:04编辑过]
9#
发表于 2004-6-12 00:32:00 | 只看该作者
以下是引用lawyer_1在2004-6-9 21:16:00的发言:

充分当做必要条件的错误。选A


原文推理:1.cancel----bad weather or few ticket.     


                2.cancel-----refund


              所以: refund and  enough ticket-----bad weather


要BAD WEATHER 成立,根据1,必须满足两个条件:CANCEL AND ENOUGH TICKET。结论只给出REFUND AND ENOUGH TICKET。即要BAD WEATHER 成立,必须REFUND 推出CANCEL。而2只是CANCEL 推出REFUND。错误在充分条件当做必要条件。A便指出这错误


请指教:

Since some ticket holders have already been issued refunds even though more than enough advance tickets were sold,

题中的这句不是说了1,REFUND;2 ENOUGH TICKETS SOLD

按你上面的逻辑分析,不就可以推出 BAD WEATHER了吗?


[此贴子已经被作者于2004-6-12 0:32:37编辑过]
10#
发表于 2004-6-12 00:51:00 | 只看该作者
根据推理1,CANCEL 和ENOUGH TICKETS推出BAD WEATHER,而REFUND 和ENOUGH TICKETS推不出BAD WEATHER
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