og 17 新题（no.661)

GMAT求高分啊 · 发表于 2016-8-15 09:18:19

In the country of Marut, the Foreign TradeAgency's records were reviewed in 1994 in light of information then newlyavailable about neig-hboring Goro. The review revealed that in every year since1963, the agency's projection of what Goro's gross national product (GNP) wouldbe five years later was a serious underestimate. The review also revealed thatin every year since 1963, the agency estimated Goro's GNP for the previousyear—a Goro state secret—very accurately.

Of the following claims, which is most stronglysupported by the statements given?

(A) Goro's GNP fluctuated greatly between 1963and 1994.

(B) Prior to 1995, Goro had not released dataintended to mislead the agency in making its five-year projections.

(C) The amount by which the agency underestimatedthe GNP it projected for Goro tended to increase overtime.

(D) Even before the new information came tolight, the agency had reason to think that at least some of the five-yearprojections it had made were inaccurate.

(E) The agency's five-year projections of Goro'sGNP had no impact on economic planning in Marut.

答案是D 总是想不通。。。求大神解释谢谢！！

masaki006 · 发表于 2016-8-18 23:13:08

原文说了每个未来5年的预测都不准，但前1年的估计都很准，这之间有矛盾的。因为用推测后5年的方法和数据推测前一年的话肯定有问题，因为前提就不对，结论不可能每次都对（原文说一直很准）。所以该agency肯定会考虑到自己的后5年的预测有问题。

GMAT求高分啊 · 发表于 2016-8-23 21:45:46

masaki006 发表于 2016-8-18 23:13
原文说了每个未来5年的预测都不准，但前1年的估计都很准，这之间有矛盾的。因为用推测后5年的方法和数据推 ...

就是说这两种预测都是用的同一种方法吗

masaki006 · 发表于 2016-8-23 22:40:57

重点应该不是是不是同一种方法这上面吧，但肯定不是同一种呀，如果是同一种方法，那1年的那个肯定也会错的，然而1年的没错，所以做1年预测时（即before the new information came tolight）该agency就会发现5年的那个有问题的。

og 17 新题（no.661)

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og 17 新题 （no.661)

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og 17 新题（no.661)