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请教补充教材52题

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楼主
发表于 2004-2-17 23:20:00 | 只看该作者

请教补充教材52题

    

Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision. But this is an idle boast, immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.


    Which of the following, if true, could best be used as a basis for arguing against the author’s position that the meteorologists’ claim cannot be evaluated?



(A) Certain unusual configurations of data can serve as the basis for precise weather forecasts even though the exact causal mechanisms are not understood.



(B) Most significant gains in the accuracy of the relevant mathematical models are accompanied by clear gains in the precision of weather forecasts.



(C) Mathematical models of the meteorological aftermath of such catastrophic events as volcanic eruptions are beginning to be constructed.



(D) Modern weather forecasts for as much as a full day ahead are broadly correct about 80 percent of the time.



(E) Meteorologists readily concede that the accurate mathematical model they are talking about is not now in their power to construct.



the key:B。





[此贴子已经被作者于2004-2-17 23:20:04编辑过]
沙发
发表于 2004-2-18 09:34:00 | 只看该作者
这里是一个先有鸡还是先有蛋的问题


作为argue against,就是找出对方逻辑上的一个错误


把自己的前提建立对方所要求的结果上,这样一来,原来的逻辑就站不住脚了

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