11. A man who survived a recent train wreck in which several lives were lost were lost was asked whether he was now afraid of taking the train He reasoned, "I've read that the likelihood of a train wreck is about one in every 100,000 times a train leaves a station. So I'll start fearing for my safety after the trains have logged another 95,000 or so trips."
The source of the man's erroneous reasoning is his
(A) misunderstanding of "likelihood" in relation to train wrecks
(B) assumption that all train wrecks are alike
(C) belief that his behavior can prevent train wrecks
(D) failure to recognize that there may be fewer future train trips as a result of the recent wreck
(E) assumption that personal fear and the occurrence of train wrecks are unrelated
原文的意思当记录为95,000次的时候就开始害怕, 因为the likelihood of a train wreck is about one in every 100,000 times. 那个人认为接近100,000就接近事故, 实际上the likelihood 应是历史上平均得来的, 是概率. 所以那个人误解了 likelihood 和wrecks的关系.
以下是引用horsefish在2004-5-6 13:04:00的发言： 原文的意思当记录为95,000次的时候就开始害怕, 因为the likelihood of a train wreck is about one in every 100,000 times. 那个人认为接近100,000就接近事故, 实际上the likelihood 应是历史上平均得来的, 是概率. 所以那个人误解了 likelihood 和wrecks的关系.
The likelyhood a train wreck is calcaulated based on accident/# of trips by a particular train according to the passage. That man however misunderstood it as it's calculated based ib accident/# of trips by all trains.
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发表于 2003-12-9 15:16:00
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