ChaseDream
搜索
返回列表 发新帖
查看: 343|回复: 4
打印 上一主题 下一主题

请教保险公司记录正确率的问题

[复制链接]
楼主
发表于 2005-12-20 18:55:00 | 只看该作者

请教保险公司记录正确率的问题

一个保险公司记录正确率的问题:记录分为手动记录和机器记录,如果是手动记录则INACCURATE的概率是60%,如果是机器记录则是75%;若所有记
录的手动记录和机器记录都为INACCURATE的概率是3%,问:随机抽一份记录其手写记录和机器记录都ACCURATE的概率.
沙发
发表于 2005-12-20 19:44:00 | 只看该作者

这题的表述是错误的。原题应该是:


17. 公司帐目用纸也用电子,纸不正确的公司里75%的电子不正确,电子不正确的公司里有60%的纸也不正确.总的公司里有3%两种都不正确,问随机抽取,两种都正确的概率

http://forum.chasedream.com/dispbbs.asp?boardID=22&ID=145422&page=1
板凳
 楼主| 发表于 2005-12-20 19:54:00 | 只看该作者

谢谢!


公司帐目用纸也用电子,纸不正确的公司里75%的电子不正确,电子不正确的公司里有60%的纸也不正确.总的公司里有3%两种都不正确,问随机抽取,两种都正确的概率


如果是这样的话,我算出来应该是6%

地板
发表于 2005-12-20 20:22:00 | 只看该作者

老jj


以前的解析给你参考








































































































































406PS:说:一项东东,即有纸报告,又有电子报告.纸报告有错的,60%电子也错;电子报告有错的,75%纸报告也错.发现共3%的纸报告和电子报告都错,问随便拿一个报告,都对的概绿.答案是:97,94,68,38,?. 反正94和68之间没数字.我选94,觉得错了,但不想再动脑筋想了.你们帮我想想看.以上数字不一定精确,但不差大数.【答案】94%
【思路】
1、In an insurance company, each policy has a paper record or an electric record, or both of them. 60 percent of the policies having incorrect paper record have incorrect electric record and 75 percent of the policies having incorrect electric record have incorrect paper record. 3 percent of all the policies have both incorrect paper and incorrect electric records. If we randomly pick out one policy, what is the probability that it is one having both correct paper and correct electric record?设总数为X policies,则既有非P 又有非E 为3%X;60%的非P 中为非E,则非P 为3%X/60%;75%的非E 为非P,则非E 为3%/75%,那么非P 与非E 一共有(3%X/60%+3%X/75%-3%X) ,那么P 与E 一共有X-(3%X/60%+3%X/75%-3%X),则其概率为[X-(3%X/60%+3%X/75%-3%X)]/X=94%
Answer:94% E?
Bitmap



 
 题目中要求的是黄色的部分,即B。
 已知A+B+C+D+E+F=1,而现在E等于(D+E)的60%,也等于(E+F)的75%,但是算不出来A和C,所以B占的比例无法求出
 E/(E+D)=60%; E/(E+F)=75%
 
 
 
Bitmap



 
75% P’=3%X      ’=3%X/75%
 60%.E’=3%.X      E’=3%X/60%
 P& E=x-(3%X/60%+3%X/75%-3%X)
 
 
 纸错电错 0.03
 纸对电对 x
 纸错电对 y
 纸对电错 z
 (0.03+y)*75%=0.03
Bitmap



 
y=0.01
 (0.03+z)*60%=0.03
 z=0.02
 x=1-0.01-0.02-0.03=0.94
 
 (0.03+y)*75%=0.03是什么意思?
 在纸记录不正确的公司中,有75%电子记录也不正确
 即等于纸记录和电子记录都不正确3%
 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~`
 
 what is the probability that a policy isn't recorded incorrectly? (~P & ~E)
 what is the probability that it is one having correct paper [or] correct electric record, [or both]? (P | E)
 As for the question "what is the probability that it is one having both correct paper and correct electric record?" (P & E), agree with 耳朵gg that the problem doesn't offer enough information to solve it. However, if the problem states that each policy has a paper record and an electric record, the question is solvable... a revised #1:
 
 In an insurance company, each policy has a paper record and an electric record. 60 percent of the policies having incorrect paper record have incorrect electric record and 75 percent of the policies having incorrect electric record have incorrect paper record. 3 percent of all the policies have both incorrect paper and incorrect electric records. If we randomly pick out one policy, what is the probability that it is one having both correct paper and correct electric record?
 
 
 
 60% P非=3%X
 75% E 非=3%X
 1-P非-E非+P非*E非

5#
 楼主| 发表于 2005-12-21 10:41:00 | 只看该作者

我搞错了,应该是94%,

您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 立即注册

Mark一下! 看一下! 顶楼主! 感谢分享! 快速回复:

手机版|ChaseDream|GMT+8, 2025-8-30 22:11
京公网安备11010202008513号 京ICP证101109号 京ICP备12012021号

ChaseDream 论坛

© 2003-2025 ChaseDream.com. All Rights Reserved.

返回顶部