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2. 经济危机和桥梁：
寂静里面的“疑似原文”就是原文，疑似原文的中文翻译从第二段开始有错误，建议不要看那个中文翻译，这个英文原文的第二段的最后部分，大写的部分，被改写了，这一部分不同
这个文章寂静里面有很多错误。。这个桥没塌！！没塌！哪句话说人家塌了的！
文章的大意大家这么理解就好了：
伦敦大桥修好之后开放，然后行人上去走，结果发现大桥晃动，倾斜，我X行人吓尿了，不得不扶着栏杆，然后政府为了安全考虑关闭了桥，结果也没发现基座啊什么的有问题，又开放，结果又开始晃动！什么情况我X，找原因啊一帮人，找人了，原来是行人啊，走路，他们的步频如果一致呢，就会导致共振，共振产生侧方向动能，桥就晃，桥一晃行人的步伐就感觉不舒服，所以这些行人就自然而然要调整步频，让自己舒服，结果每个人都去调整，然后步频又TM一致了。。。又共振，又晃，又调整步频》》又共振。。。（明白了吧，这是一个死扣，死循环）
这就跟经济危机里面很像，当金融市场产生危机的时候，大的银行，投行，对冲基金，就要减少他们的风险敞口（专业术语我解释下，减少风险敞口就理解成卖卖卖！，把账上的产品赶快卖出去换成现金才安全啊），结果没有人买，流动性差，就形成了在金融市场中的死循环。（这个循环我解释下。是这样，大机构为了减少风险敞口卖出商品，所以供给就增加了，价格就下降了，但是没人买，所以需求就下降，结果价格就更低了不是，价格更低了。。还卖不出去，就是说持有这些产品的大机构的风险其实增加了。。对吧，，学过ACCT和金融的应该能理解，就是说在市场动荡的时候每个参与者做出的理性决策事实上并没有帮助他们规避更大的损失而且造成了更大的系统性风险，而且这个过程是不断自我加强的，因为价格降低还卖不出怎么办？继续降价啊！降到有人买为止啊。。所以风险就更大了。。）
原文：Somecommentators suspected the bridge’s foundations, others anunusual air pattern. The real problem was that the designers of the bridge hadnot taken into account how the footway would react to all the pedestrianswalking on it. When a person walks, lifting and dropping each foot in turn, heor she produces a slight sideways force. If hundreds of people are walking in aconfined space, and some happen to walk in step, they can generate enoughlateral momentum to move a footbridge just a little. Once the footway startsswaying, however subtly, more and more pedestrians adjust their gait to getcomfortable, stepping to and fro in synch. As a positive feedback loop developsbetween the bridge’s swing and the pedestrians’stride, the sideways forces can increase dramatically and the bridge can lurchviolently. The investigating engineers termed this process “synchronouslateral excitation”.
Mostof the time, financial markets are pretty calm, trading is orderly, andandparticipants can buy and sell in large quantities. Whenever a crisis hits,however, the biggest players—banks, investment banks, hedgefunds—rush to reduce their exposure, buyersdisappear, and liquidity dries up. Where previously there were diverse views,now there is unanimity: everybody’s moving in lockstep. “Thepedestrians on the bridge are like banks adjusting their stance and themovements of the bridge itself are like price changes,” Shin wrote. And the process isself-reinforcing: once liquidity falls below a certain threshold, “allthe elements that formed a virtuous circle to promote stability now willconspire to undermine it. ” The financial markets canbecome highly unstable.
Thisis essentially what happened in the lead-up to the Great Crunch. The triggerwas, of course, the market for subprime-mortgage bonds—bonds backed by the monthlypayments from pools of loans that had been made to poor and middle-income homebuyers. In August, 2007, with house prices falling and mortgage delinquenciesrising, the market for subprime securities froze. By itself, this shouldn’thave caused too many problems: the entire stock of outstanding subprimemortgages was about a trillion dollars, a figure dwarfed by nearly twelvetrillion dollars in total outstanding mortgages, not to mention theeighteen-trillion-dollar value of the stock market. But then banks, whichcouldn’t estimate how much exposure other firmshad to losses, started to pull back credit lines and hoard their capital—andthey did so en masse, confirming Shin’s point about the marketimposing uniformity. An immediate collapse was averted when the EuropeanCentral Bank and the Fed announced that they would pump more money into thefinancial system. Still, the global economic crisis didn’tease up until early this year, and by then governments had committed anestimated nine trillion dollars to propping up the system.
题目：
题目我记不清楚，有几点要注意，1个是文章中的loop指的就是我说的这个死循环
第二个是有一道题目问你金融危机中的rational irrationality（这是第二段被改写的部分出现的）和桥梁中行人的什么行为很像？ 选择含有adjust gait的选项（调整步频），千万不要选含有（clingling和roiling的选项，扶着栏杆）那是干扰选项。 |
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发表于 2016-1-19 03:58:43
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