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发表于 2003-8-5 00:53:00
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complex one. It is easy to make a mistake. In general, we say that a cause C is the cause of an effect E if and only if: (i) Generally, if C occurs, then E will occur, and (ii) Generally, if C does not occur, then E will not occur ether. We say "generally" because there are always exceptions. For example: We say that striking the match causes the match to light, because: (i) Generally, when the match is struck, it lights (except when the match is dunked in water), and (ii) Generally, when the match is not struck, it does not light (except when it is lit with a blowtorch). Many writers also require that a causal statement be supported with a natural law. For example, the statement that "striking the match causes it to light" is supported by the principle that "friction produces heat, and heat produces fire".
Coincidental Correlation ( post hoc ergo prompter hoc )
Definition: The name in Latin means "after this therefore because of this". This describes the fallacy. An author commits the fallacy when it is assumed that because one thing follows another that the one thing was caused by the other. Examples: (i) Immigration to Alberta from Ontario increased. Soon after, the welfare rolls increased. Therefore, the increased immigration caused the increased welfare rolls. (ii) I took EZ-No-Cold, and two days later, my cold disappeared. Proof: Show that the correlation is coincidental by showing that: (i) the effect would have occurred even if the cause did not occur, or (ii) that the effect was caused by something other than the suggested cause. (Cedarblom and Paulsen: 237, Copi and Cohen: 101)
Joint Effect Definition: One thing is held to cause another when in fact both are the effect of a single underlying cause. This fallacy is often understood as a special case of post hoc ergo prompter hoc. Examples: (i) We are experiencing high unemployment which s being caused by a low consumer demand. (In fact, both may be caused by high interest rates.) (ii) You have a fever and this is causing you to break out in spots. (In fact, both symptoms are caused by the measles.) Proof: Identify the two effects and show that they are caused by the same underlying cause. It is necessary to describe the underlying cause and prove that it causes each symptom. (Cedarblom and Paulsen: 238)
Genuine but Insignificant Cause Definition: The object or event identified as the cause of an effect is a genuine cause, but insignificant when compared to the other causes of that event. Note that this fallacy does not apply when all other contributing causes are equally insignificant. Thus, it is not a fallacy to say that you helped cause defeat the Tory government because you voted Reform, for your vote had as much weight as any other vote, and hence is equally a part of the cause. Examples: (i) Smoking is causing air pollution in Edmonton. (True, but the effect of smoking is insignificant compared to the effect of auto exhaust.) (ii) By leaving your oven on overnight you are contributing to global warming. Proof: Identify the much more significant cause. (Cedarblom and Paulsen: 238)
Wrong Direction Definition: The relation between cause and effect is reversed. Examples: (i) Cancer causes smoking. (ii) The increase in AIDS was caused by more sex education. (In fact, the increase in sex education was caused by the spread of AIDS.) Proof: Give a causal argument showing that the relation between cause and effect has been reversed. (Cedarblom and Paulsen: 238)
Complex Cause Definition: The effect is caused by a number of objects or events, of which the cause identified is only a part. A variation of this is the feedback loop where the effect is itself a part of the cause. Examples: (i) The accident was caused by the poor location of the bush. (True, but it wouldn't have occurred had the driver not been drunk and the pedestrian not been jaywalking.) (ii) The Challenger explosion was caused by the cold weather. (True, however, it would not have occurred had the O- |
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