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题目好长 就是“Most home in the northeastern United States........." 作者认为应该投资一个heating oil 公司那篇
In this argument the arguer conclude that the firm should invest in the consolidated industry. To substantiate the conclusion the arguer cites the fact that recently the weather is unusually inclement in the northeastern United States. However, close scrutiny of this argument reveals that it is unconvincing in several aspects until the arguer could substantiate the following assumptions.
First and foremost, the arguer’s inference rest on the poor assumption that during the period of new houses are being built the climate condition remained unchanged. Granted that the arguer cites the claim made by climate forecasters that such a weather pattern will continue for several more years, but the arguer fails to tell us how long will be taken to finish those new houses and how long it will be taken for new resident to live in this new houses. In this case, this mere fact do not necessary means when new houses are finished the temperature in this area will still below- normal. Commonsense tell us with the development of industry earth in now das and age is suffering from global- warming, than it is highly possible that when those new houses are finished the temperature in this area have already return to normal or even above normal. Under this circumstance the using of heating oil may not increase dramatically as the arguer wishes. Than the suggestion made by the arguer is likely to be proved wrong.
Secondly, granted that such a low temperature will last for quite a long time, the suggestion made by the arguer is still untenable. The arguer unfairly assumes that people’s consuming habit will not change, base on this assumption the arguer imply that because of the low temperature people’s demand for heating will increase as a result people will consume more heating oil and the investment in the consolidation corporation will be profitable. This reasoning line is obviously questionable. In now days and age people’s living quality has been improved dramatically, than when people are choosing the source of heating they may not consider about cost as what they usually did. They may consider more about whether the method they chose is efficient and comfortable. In this case it is highly possible that in recent years people are replacing heating oil with other heating method such as air-conditioning and so forth, than such an unusual climate pattern may not bring about the increasing in heating oil and the investment may not be as profitable as the arguer wishes.
Last but not the least, even if the arguer’s assumption about people’s consuming habit and the time such an unusual climate pattern will last is correct, the investment will not necessarily be profitable as a result. Profitability is a function of both revenue and expense. Thus it is entirely possible that although consolidating industries in one of the major company in this area, its revenue is high, its ‘expense in maintaining daily operation can also be significant. Than such a high cost will render the investment not profitable, and the suggestion made by arguer is obviously unwise.
In sum the conclusion reached in this argument is misleading and invalid even if the arguer could substantiate the above mentioned assumptions.
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发表于 2014-5-27 11:09:46
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