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The following appeared as part of an article in a business magazine.
"A recent study rating 300 male and female advertising executives according to the average number of hours they sleep per night showed an association between the amount of sleep the executives need and the success of their firms. Of the advertising firms studied, those whose executives reported needing no more than six hours of sleep per night had higher profit margins and faster growth. On the basis of this study, we recommend that businesses hire only people who need less than six hours of sleep per night."
提纲：1.成功公司小于六小时不一定说明小于六小时会导致成功；2.可能由第三变量解释，比如少睡眠带来的额外工作时间决定成功，如果不工作少睡眠无用 3 广告公司就算是真的也未必能推广到所有公司
While the proposal seems to be reasonable that business should only hire those who sleep less than six hours per night based on the study of advertising executives, several questions still need to be asked before we can make sure that this recommendation would fit into the expanded situations. Only after the questions being answered properly providing further evidence could we accept the idea and, then, put it into practice.
According to the argument, among those advertising firms in which 300 advertising executives works, those whose executives sleep less than 6 hours are more likely to enjoy faster growth and higher profit margins. However, we have to figure out that it is because people sleep less than six hours lead to a successful company or just a successful company usually has a advertising executive who sleep less than six hours per night. Maybe it’s because the faster growth and higher profit margins one certain firm enjoys, the busier works and, as a result, less sleeping hours are adjusted to the heavy work. We just do not know for sure. Unless additional evidence providing sleeping less hours is the cause not the effect, the argument could be not that solid.
Another question needed to be asked to evaluate the argument is about whether other factors would have significant influence on the success of an advertising firm. It could be true that it is the less sleeping hours of advertising executive helps result in the success of the company, however this connection could be only indirect and interpreted by a third party factor. For example, those advertising executives who sleep less than 6 hours per night, they are more motivated to work all day long, maybe more than 15 hours. Or they might have most of their creative works done during midnight when they have most inspirations. On the other hand, those who go out for parties, play all night and do nothing related to the advertising works could also have an average daily sleep of less than 6 hours, but this habit could never account for the faster growth of a certain advertising firm.
Moreover, the author only mentioned the study on advertising firms and their executives, only one particular type among all those businesses. The argument could be unreliable without questioning the validity of putting the conclusion into a different field. For example, people who do some certain type of other jobs such as marketing research in a toy company do not need long working hours. All they need to do is analyze the demand of the market as good as possible. It’s irrelevant between their sleeping hours and their outcome as long as they have the minimum time required for effective market study. Sometimes reducing the sleeping hours could possibly reduce the attention on the research, and lead to minor errors in their works. Without confirming that every job has the same requirement on sleeping hours, we can not say that business should only hire those who need less than six hours per night.
Admittedly, based on our common impression, successful people always working long hours and sleep less. However, without identifying that the sleeping hours is a definite cause of successful firm or just merely a response to the heavy work, and whether there is third party factor between the less sleeping hours and the success of a firm, we can’t not make sure the author’s argument that less sleeping hours lead to business success is absolutely correct. Even if the answers turn out to support the author’s argument, it still need to be checked whether in the fields other than advertising remains the same relation. Otherwise, we can only apply it in the field of advertising.
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发表于 2012-8-22 13:03:28
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