- UID
- 694562
- 在线时间
- 小时
- 注册时间
- 2011-11-21
- 最后登录
- 1970-1-1
- 主题
- 帖子
- 性别
- 保密
|
The following appeared in a memorandum from the planning department of an electric power company.
Several recent surveys indicate that home owners are increasingly eager to conserve energy. At the same time, manufacturers are now marketing many home appliances, such as refrigerators and air conditioners, that are almost twice as energy efficient as those sold a decade ago. Also, new technologies for better home insulation and passive solar heating are readily available to reduce the energy needed for home heating. Therefore, the total demand for electricity in our area will not increase—and may decline slightly. Since our three electric generating plants in operation for the past twenty years have always met our needs, construction of new generating plants will not be necessary."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
---------------------------------------------------------
提纲：
1）survey有问题 可能不可信
2）节能科技包括新电器、新隔热技术不一定有人买账
3）人口总数变化不明
---------------------------------------------------------
Though plausible at first glance, arigorous examination would reveal several flaws in the analysis and thus makethe argument tenuous. By citing a survey about the consumers' willingness to saveenergy, together with the possible adoption of energy-saving technologies likenew home appliances and home insulation measures, the author want the convinceus that the total electric energy in the area will not increase, even decreasea little bit.
First of all, the arguer cites a survey inthe argument in order to indicate the home owners' willingness to save energy.However, we are not informed of any detailed information about the survey. Whoconducted the survey, and how many people are involved? If the survey iscarried out by some middle school students and without basic guidance, then itwould lend no support for the argument. Besides, the arguer unfairly assumesthat the people are representative, which is also dubious. The common sensetold us that people with a relatively better education background are morewilling conserve the energy, so if the respondents involved in the survey areall professors, the result may become less useful as a reference. Withoutruling out the possibilities like this, the argument is unconvincing,
Furthermore, it is told that new homeappliance which have higher energy efficiency are available now, but that doesnot mean the consumers are willing to pay for them. It is highly possible thatthe price of these new technologies is so high that people are reluctant to payfor them. In this light, the possible future of the energy saving technologieswould be in doubt, and we cannot draw any conclusion from the uncertain prospect.
Granted that the consumers are willing topay for the new technologies, it is still too hasty to make the conclusion thatthe total electric energy consumption in the region will keep stable in thefuture. As we know, the total energy consumption is a function of individualenergy efficiency and the total user amount. Here the author assumes that theamount of users in this region will keep unchanged in the future. But how toprove that? What if many people moved into this region so that the population balloonsup? No evidence is provided to back this assumption.
To sum up, the argument is not wellreasoned because the evidence it provided is either flawed or incomplete. Tofurther reinforce the argument, the arguer should try to prove: 1) that thesurvey is properly conducted and thus the result is reliable 2) that peoplewill pay for the new energy saving technologies no matter how expensive theymay be 3) that the total population will keep stable in the future. Only inthat way can the argument become sound and be accepted by more people. |
|
京公网安备11010202008513号 京ICP证101109号 京ICP备12012021号
发表于 2012-8-13 19:30:15
收藏
收藏
楼主
