a 60
The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with belownormal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
正文：
In this letter, based on the prediction that an increased demand for heating oil, the author recommends investment in Consolidated Industries which major business operation is the detail sale of home heating oil. To bolster his recommendation, the author indicates that oil is the traditional major fuel for heating in the northeastern United States, and harsh winter will continue for several more years. Furthermore, he also notes that many new homes are being built in the region. At first glance, it seems well-presented, however, further contemplation reveals that the argument suffers some logical flaws.
First of all, the author hastily assumes that the many more new homes will facilitate the demand of oil. However, it is not necessarily the case, based on the letter. It is entirely possible that many more new homes use some more environmental fuel for heating instead of oil. Therefore, if the senario is ture, the demand for heating oil will not be raised, and the related assumption is unconvinced.
Secondly, the author also assume the below-normal temperature which is predicted to continue for several more years is contributed to the increase of demand. However, there is no causal relationship between them. On the one hand, the author does not point out the specific temperature of the below-normal, and does not provide more evidence to illustrate how the change of temperature influences the demand of fuel. Maybe the below-normal temperatures is not so low that raise the demand necessarily. On the other hands, climate is fast-changing so that the prediction of the climate forecasters is not sound without more statistical analysis. Lacking these evidence, the assumption lends less surpport to the conclusion.
Finally, even if the increase demand for heating oil is certainty, the assumption that the investment in Consolidated Industries will be judicious is compelling. We are not informed that the detailed information about this company. Perhaps, the company does not extend its business to the northeastern United States, so the evidence that the author provides is irrelevant to it. Or perhaps, the marketing share and the administration situation of the company is not satisfactory, which plays crucial role in the investment. Without taking these factors into consideration, the author can not just draw a firm conclusion that investment in Consolidated Industries is reasonable.
In summary, the conclusion made by the author relies on a series of assumption which render it unpersuasive as it stands. To strenghen the recommendation, the author should provide sufficient data correlating temperature with demand for heating, and proportion of the oil utility in the region. To better access the investment, the exhaustive financial report and backgroud materials should be evaluated before making the decision.
提纲：
1. 新建的大楼未必用oil供暖
2.低温以及预测不能代表oil用量加大
3. 即使用量加大，不能说明投资CI是明智的
谢谢赐教！
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发表于 2012-5-21 19:24:59
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