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The following memorandum is from the business manager of Happy Pancake House restaurants.
"Recently, butter has been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House restaurants throughout the southwestern United States. This change, however, has had little impact on our customers. In fact, only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that an average of 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change. Furthermore, many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead. Clearly, either these customers do not distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term 'butter' to refer to either butter or margarine."
Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument.
提纲：服务员说的话并不可靠，也许他们只是有选择地说了；
2%的人抱怨，并不能代表购买黄油商品群体中只有2%的人抱怨；
并不能证明98%的人高兴，也许是他们心里不高兴，但只是没有抱怨；
当给margarine时没有抱怨也许只是因为顾客没有现在分辨出来。
In this memorandum arguer asserts that butter replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House restaurants(HPH)has had little impact on customers. He/she intended to explain this phenomenon away as due to three evidences 1)only about 2 percent of customers have complained；(2)servers reported that many customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead;(3)customers do not distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term 'butter' to refer to either butter or margarine. The argument is well presented, but after taking a clear scrutiny, I find the results would not be accounted by the proposed explanation, and this would inevitably court the final argument based on the proposed explanation unconvincing.
To begin with, there are no evidence especially on the objectivity, sample characteristics to prove the validness of what servers reported. Perhaps the reason why the report turned to be so sound is servers' intentionally or unwittingly striving to downplay bad news when reported to the manager, this is quite possible. Meanwhile, proof was lacking that the objects who server observed would be typical enough to represent all of buffer consumers, maybe the report is just based on a short time survey of the customers who love talking with the servers. In short without expelling other possible reasons for the servers reported 2% complains, the manager cannot convince me on the basis of them that butter customers are genuine don't mind the change.
Granted the requirement that validness of report can be met, only 2% of customers have complained, but owing to our not knowing the percent of butter food in all products which HPH sales, we won't know how this change influences the butter food customers, for example if there are only 2% person in all customers buy butter food, and then 2% of all person complained, this would mean all of butter costumer don't satisfied with this change.
Even though butter food is the main product of HPH and 2% is a small percent, the opinion that 98% people would happy with the change is not convincing. If all the customers express their honest opinion, showing the good result, it may be true. Otherwise the conclusion is unfounded. There may be an alternative explanations that customers may have been unsatisfied with changing and go to other restaurant the next time rather complain, because they don't want to destroy their happy dinner time by arguing with the servers. Moreover even if the 98% customers didn't complain, the author can't deduce that they are happy with this change, maybe they just didn't notice this changing at present.
Finally, there is no strong evidence on whether the majority customers wouldn't distinguish butter from margarine or ordinary customers couldn't differentiate the two by judging the appearance, taste, smell, color and so on. If the reason is the late one and customers happens to know the truth, maybe they would feel cheated and never consume HPH food again.
Overall, to bolster the conclusion the manager must provide dear evidence--perhaps by way of survey or study--the customers are really not care about this change on the premise that they know that's margarine not butter. Meanwhile, to better assess the argument, I would need to know exactly what the customers complained and whether they would accept margarine if there are no other choice in choice in HPH, and whether they would influence other customers' choice.
希望不吝赐教啊，今天用了一天才写出来的，还是感觉很生疏，加油！我6月16号考G，有没有人一起的？ |
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发表于 2012-5-19 21:42:56
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