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166 "The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.
""An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. This shows that eating a substantial amount of fish can clearly prevent colds. Furthermore, since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, attendance levels will improve. Therefore, we recommend the daily use of a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism.""
"Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
论点：
We recommendmend the daily use of a nutritional supplement derived from dish oil as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism
论据：
(1)A study reports that in nearby East Meria ,where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of cold.This shows that eating a subtantial amount of fish can clearly prevent colds.
(2)since cold are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, attendance levels will improve.
提纲：
（1） 调查错误
（2） 买鱼和感冒少的关系
（3） 旷课的理由的可信度及药的有效性及用量
Argument:
In this memo, the author recommends the daily use of a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism. To supports this assertion the author cites a study conducted on people in East Meria, and points out that the attendance level will be proved since cold are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work. While the advice is plausible at the first glance, a close scrutiny of this argument reveals that the argument is unconvincing in several aspects.
To begin with, as for the study the author cites, a question need to be answered is whether the study is reliable enough before I can accept any conclusion the author arrives at based on it. However, the scope and the validity of that study is vague. Perhaps the sample was not representative of people in East Meria, asking only those healthy club members who seldom get cold because of exercising often. Perhaps the study used ambiguous words such as the option of “seldom” to mean “once or twice ”, but the respondents thought people who go to doctors less ten times a year are “seldom” visit the doctors. Still perhaps the study was 15 pages long, and the respondents did the questionnaire halfheartedly. We just do not know. Only if the study is fully valid, representative, and reliable, can it use to back the author’s argument.
Additionally, the author falsely assumes that the high fish consumption contributes to less colds, simply based on a coincidence. We may ask if there are other factors leads to less colds. It is likely that high medical care and healthy eating habits keep people in East Meria stay healthy and be away from doctors. It is also likely that the consumption of fish is not for eating, but for other uses. For example, people there mostly are fond of fish-farming and often buy fish for fish-farming, or always raise cats with food of fish. Unless all these possibilities can be ruled out, the causal relationship between high fish consumption and less colds is weak, if not unfounded.
Finally, even if all the inference and deduction made in the argument above is true, the author still fails to perform a feasibility analysis of the true cause of absenteeism and the effectiveness of the nutritional supplement derived from fish oil. Firstly, we may ask if having a cold is the true reason given for absences from works and schools. However, it is likely just a excuse in many cases. If so, the amount of absenteeism will not decline even they use the nutritional supplement every day. Secondly, we doubt if the nutrition supplement can work. After all, natural fish are different from something derived from fish oil, and if some nutrition in fish that is helpful for curing cold may not contained in the nutritional supplement, it will be useless. Also, the author give no information to deal with whether the dose of daily use is appropriate and whether it can cause side-effect, and it is quite possible that the daily use of a nutritional supplement do harm to health. The author’s reasoning is definitely flawed unless he/she can convince me that these and other possible scenarios are unlikely.
Pursuing a healthy and high quality life, people come up with many advice. However, the recommendation the author make is invalid and misleading, basing on my above analysis. They cannot expect improved situation of less colds and lower absenteeism if people in West Meria use nutritional supplement derived from fish oil. Careful analysis of all the factors I have presented is the best first step to reaching their goals of preventing colds and lower absenteeism. |
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发表于 2012-5-9 11:32:28
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