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小弟猴子对狒狒135中两题有疑惑，希望高人能指点或讨论一下，谢谢大家
70. A low-pressure weather system is approaching Plainville; rainfall results from about 70 percent of such systems in the Plainville area. Moreover, the current season, spring, is the time of year in which thundershowers, which sometimes result from low-pressure systems, are most likely to occur in Plainville. Knowing which one of the following, in addition to the information above, would be most useful for determine the probability that Plainville will have a thundershower soon? (A) the percentage of thundershowers in Plainville that occur in the spring (B) the percentage of spring rainfalls in Plainville that are thundershowers (C) the percentage of thundershowers in Plainville that result from low-pressure systems (D) whether low-pressure systems in other areas are associated with rainfall (E) whether Plainville has more or fewer thundershowers each spring than do near by towns
答案说选C,但我有不同看法，我认为应该选B 文中第一句，低压天气有70％机会会形成降雨。第二句，春天当地低压天气容易引起雷阵雨。 我的思路：低压x70%=降雨几率， 所以 雷阵雨的几率＝ 春天降雨中雷阵雨的几率x降雨几率＝降雨中雷阵雨的几率x70％ 文中答案是C,但我认为C的答案并不严谨，C说的是当地由低压天气引起雷阵雨的概率，我认为忽略了春天这个因素，不能将全年的概率套到春天来。 如果B说不通，只有一种解释，就是雷阵雨并不属于降雨，这两个概念是并列的。
97. A scientific theory is a good theory if it satisfies two requirements: it must accurately describe a large class of observations in terms of a model that is simple enough to contain only a few elements, and it must make definite predictions about the results of future observations. For example, Aristotle’s cosmological theory, which claimed that everything was made out of four elements---earth, air, fire, and water---satisfied the first requirement, but it did not make any definite predictions. Thus, Aristotle’s cosmological theory was not a good theory. If all the statements in the passage are true, each of the following must also be true EXCEPT: (A) Prediction about the results of future observations must be made by any good scientific theory (B) Observation of physical phenomena was not a major concern in Aristotle’s cosmological theory. (C) For elements can be the basis of a scientific model that is simple enough to meet the simplicity criterion of a good theory. (D) A scientific model that contains many elements is not a good theory. (E) Aristotle’s cosmological theory described a large class of observations in terms of only four elements.
答案说选B,我认为应该选A 文中一个好的科学理论的两个必要条件：1，有一个简单的科学模型。2，可以对结果进行预测。 A很明显有逻辑错误，A的意思：对未来结果的预测必须由好的科学理论得出。 在不满足条件1的情况下，条件2并不一定只有由好的科学理论得到。举例说明：一个科学理论，模型很复杂，但它能对未来结果有很好的预测。它不是一个好理论，但是却能满足条件2。结论就是：就是对未来结果的预测不一定必须由好的科学理论得出。所以A是错误的 除非我对A的理解有问题？ | 
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发表于 2007-11-6 02:17:00
