一道比较费时的CR

Gwong · 发表于 2019-3-6 11:07:41

Recently in City X, developers have stopped buying land, contractors have found themselves going without work for longer periods, and banks have issued fewer mortgages. There must be fewer new residents moving to City X
than there were previously.

Which of the following indicates a flaw in the reasoning above?
• This year several housing blocks have gone on the market after being held up for months by legal red tape.
• The average size of a new home has increased significantly over the past several years.
• Re-sales of condominiums have increased over the past six months.
• The cost of materials such as lumber and cement has decreased over the past year.
• Sales of other big-ticket items, such as automobiles and boats, has remained steady over the past year.

FROM MANHATTAN:

This is a very tricky problem! However, I believe A is still very correct. Here's why: we are not simply asked to "weaken the conclusion" (that fewer residents are moving in), but to indicate a flaw in the reasoning. Because the reasoning is built on three premises, discounting two of them DOES in fact indicate such a flaw. This makes A the right choice for the specific question as it is asked.

As to: "Why not C?": C tells us that condos are being RE-sold. This means that the original occupants will need a place to live as well. In fact, this could occur without any new residents moving in whatsoever. This makes C perfectly in line with the argument laid out above. But what about the mortgages, you ask? Doesn't C show that there are more mortgages being issued? And doesn't that conflict with the reasoning above? Not really. The argument states that banks have issued fewer mortgages as a premise, something that we could verify, aka a fact. So we are to take that as true. If the condo re-sales require some new mortgages, but overall mortgages have dropped, then this would indicate that there are fewer sales occurring elsewhere in this economy. Again, this is in line with the reasoning in the argument.

典座 · 发表于 2020-11-13 03:57:36

谢谢

一道比较费时的CR

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