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麻烦大家看一下这道用helr方法解决的题目，相关因果不是指同时发生的事情吗，这里的reorganization不是前与increase吗？那这不应该是因果题吗？ 还有就是求问各位大神，在做题的过程中，发现很难去按照helr的方法分类，有没有什么方法啊？ Following several years of declining advertising sales, the Greenville Times reorganized its advertising sales force two years ago. Before the reorganization, the sales force was organized geographically, with some sales representatives concentrating on city-center businesses and others concentrating on different outlying regions. The reorganization attempted to increase the sales representatives’ knowledge of clients’ businesses by having each sales representative deal with only one type of industry or of retailing. After the reorganization, advertising sales increased. In assessing whether the improvement in advertising sales can properly be attributed to the reorganization, it would be helpful to find out each of the following EXCEPT: (A) Two years ago, what proportion of the Greenville Times’s total revenue was generated by advertising sales? (B) Has the circulation of the Greenville Times increased substantially in the last two years? (C) Has there been a substantial turnover in personnel in the advertising sales force over the last two years? (D) Before the reorganization, had sales representatives found it difficult to keep up with relevant developments in all the types of businesses to which they were assigned? (E) Has the economy in Greenville and the surrounding regions been growing rapidly over the last two years? 情景：Greenville Times在两年前重组了广告销售部门。现在的现象是，在重组之后，广告的销售上升了。 推理：推理文段的结论实际上在问题中，即，the improvement in advertising sales can properly be attributed to the reorganization。在前提中，我们可以发现“重组”和“广告的销售”之间存在时间关联（after）。由于前提为时间关联，结论为因果关系，因此推理文段是相关因果推理。 前提：reorganization和advertising sales increased之间存在正相关关系 结论：The improvement in advertising sales can properly be attributed to the reorganization 答案选项要么同时提及reorganization和advertising sales increased，要么给advertising sales increased另外一个原因。 选项分析： (A) Correct. 两年以前，广告销售的收入占Greenville Times总收入的百分比是多少？ 本选项没有提及reorganization，它给出的是广告销售收入和总收入之间的关系，不能评估相关因果推理。 (B) 近两年来，Greenville Times的传播量有没有显著的上升？本选项给出了advertising sales increased的另一个可能的原因，即，传播量增大也可能导致广告销售收入上升，属于CQ4：独立第三因素问题。 (C) 近两年在广告销售部门的人事问题上有没有重大变动？如果有，证明重组是有意义的，如果没有，就证明重组是没意义的。建立了因和果之间的相关性。属于CQ1：相关性不存在问题。 (D) 在重组之前，销售代表有没有发现很难跟上指派给他们的所有类型的商业任务的相关发展进度？本选项同(C)。 (E) 在Greenville和其周边的地区的经济是不是在过去的两年内是否上涨迅速？本选项给出了advertising sales increased的另一个可能的原因，即，经济变好可能导致广告销售收入上升，属于CQ4：独立第三因素问题。
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发表于 2016-5-19 23:15:04
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