argu6....！！！！谢谢版主大人！！！~~~

JCBrenda

146. Thefollowing appeared in a memo to the board of directors of a company thatspecializes in the delivery of heating oil.

"Mosthomes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, havetraditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season,that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climateforecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several moreyears. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response torecent population growth. Because of these trends, we can safely predict thatthis region will experience an increased demand for heating oil during the nextfive years."

Write aresponse in which you discuss what specific evidences is needed to evaluate theargument and explain how the evidences would weaken or strengthen the argument.


In the argument, the author cites the factthat  this region will have more demandfor heating oil during the next five years. To testify this argument, theauthor points out that people in the northeastern United States experienced 90days with below-normal temperatures last heating season and the prediction ofits continuances. The arguer also points out that many newhomes will be built to satisfy the population growth. However, these scarce evidencescannot fully support the author prediction.

First, the author assumes that people inthe northeastern United States use a lot of oil as their fuel for heating.However, the author doesn't provide ample evidences to proof it. It is entirelypossible that people there are more likely to save their energy than warmthemselves. To further substantiate the importance of the heating oil, theauthor points out that the serious circumstance of weather there and theprediction of forecasters. Yet the author ignores that the predication may notbe accurate due to the limited technology, the variety of weathers andabilities of forecasters. And there is a possibility that people invent otherenergy resources to provide heat for people in the future.

Second, even if the assumptions above isbelievable, the author assumes that new homes built in this region will beoccupied and people living here will use oil for heating once they arefinished. Actually, maybe the demand of this region's houses has been satisfiedand no one will buy these new homes, which will result in a chance that the useof oil won’t be increased at this field. So, this kind of contention cannotstrongly proof the author's prediction.

Finally, the author assumes that thisregion will experience an increased demand for heating oil which will takeplace during the next five years. There are two mistakes taken by the author inthis contention. Firstly, the author neglects the other possible ways forpeople to heating except for oil. People could turn on the air conditioner forwarming. Besides, there is no evidence or survey offered to show us that itwill definitely happen in the next five years, maybe ten years or more. Unlessthe author amends these errors, this argument cannot convince me that thisprediction is reliable and accurate.

In sum, this argument lacks valid evidencesto proof its prediction. The author has to provide the amount of oil people inthe northern United States and the reliability of the prediction of theforecasters. We also need to know much about the occupation rate of these newhomes and chances that they will use oil as an approach to heating. To betterassess this argument, the testimonies supporting that the importance of oil forheating of people and how long the increased demand will be lasting are alsoneeded.

普渡哥

The author has to provide the amount of oil people in the northern United States and the reliability of the prediction of the forecasters. We also need to know much about the occupation rate of these new homes and chances that they will use oil as an approach to heating.

这里oil people什么意思？？

much这个词好像作者不怎么会用。

JCBrenda

疏忽大意了 ，，，==