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outline:1 研究内容问题:(1)(2)无关数据 2 因果关系错 3 因果关系错 This argument appears to be correct and logical that the government should make more efforts to enhance people’s awareness of traffic security rather than highlighting the importance of helmets. While the author is well-intentioned, she/he fails to support his argument with ground assumptions and thus the argument is unconvincing. First of all, the author states the results of two studies that there has been a 200 percent increase in the number of bicycle-related accidents But it is quite vague, in fact, the exact number of bicyclists It is likely that the number of bicyclists has dumped a large scale for increasing people tended to drive private cars and use convenient public transport, with the enhancement of living level and technology. Then the number of bicyclists who wore helmets perhaps has diminished and this would lead the argument to the opposite direction. Furthermore, we do not know the specific figure of accidents the bicyclists who wore helmets suffered from. Probably the large proportion of people had bicycle-related accidents did not wear helmets and those were most responsible for the high incidence of accidents rather than bicyclists who wore helmets. Unfortunately, we know none of those above. In order to fully bolster the argument, she/he must provide clearer and more relevant data of the study, including the number of bicyclists and accidents the bicyclists who wear helmets suffered from. Moreover, based on the unstated assumption from the author that the wearing helmets causes more accidents, another assumption being extended is that that they will take more risks is primarily due to bicyclists feel safer when they wear helmets . This is probably not the case. Normally a man who likes to wear helmets as a protection gear is more likely to be a cautious person and carefully drives and resists risks. To evaluate fully the argument, the author should study further by asking people the reason why they tend to take risks before stating that people wearing helmets would take more risks.
Last but not least, the author implies that wearing helmets is the major reason to contribute to any bicycle-related accidents. Although those accidents happened when bicyclists wore helmets, it cannot exclude a variety of alternative factors contributing to the accidents, such as the busy traffic, poor instructions on the roads, and carelessness of other car drivers or bus drivers. This must weaken the validity of the argument that wearing helmets is responsible for bicycle-related accidents and thus the author discourages people to wear this gear. It is acceptable that government should do more to educating people about bicycle safety. However, the arguer’s suggestion is unconvincing due to the unwarranted assumptions in the process of reasoning. To better evaluate the argument, the director should conduct an extensive study on bicycle-related accidents to learn the relevant data of it, and also need to make a survey to learn the real reason for people to take risks instead of taking the false assumption hastily. It is important for a decider to take more care to draw a conclusion. |
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