aa41,求拍拍，上考场前的最后几篇

liyc1030

41) The following appeared in a health newsletter.
A ten-year nationwide study of the effectiveness of wearing a helmet while bicycling indicates that ten years ago, approximately 35 percent of all bicyclists reported wearing helmets, whereas today that number is nearly 80 percent. Another study, however, suggests that during the same ten-year period, the number of bicycle-related accidents has increased 200 percent. These results demonstrate that bicyclists feel safer because they are wearing helmets, and they take more risks as a result. Thus, to reduce the number of serious injuries from bicycle accidents, the government should concentrate more on educating people about bicycle safety and less on encouraging or requiring bicyclists to wear helmets.
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.



In the argument, the author claims that toreduce the number of serious injuries from bicycle accidents, the governmentshould concentrate more on educating people about bicycle safety and less onencouraging or requiring bicyclist on wear helmets. Although the argument issomewhat plausible at first glance, it is full of hole and assumptions, andthus cannot support author's claim.

Citing a ten-year nationwide study, theauthor claims that the number of people wearing helmet has increased in thepast ten years. It is not clear, however, the scope and validity of the survey.A national survey does not mean that the researchers survey every people inthis country. It is entirely possible that the researchers do the survey byselecting some samples. Maybe the samples are not so representative to wholepeople, or the capacity of samples is too small to represent. Therefore, the author'sreasoning is intrinsically flawed and cannot convince me unless a practical andpersuasive survey is made on the accidents.

In the second place, the author impliesthat the bicycle-related accidents have increased a lot because the number orbicycle-related accidents has increased 200 percent. While it might be truethat such accident has really increased a lot during the ten-year period, theconclusion cannot be achieved from the author's evidence. It is likely thatbicycle-related accident happened only once ten year ago, and thus, it happentwice now. Therefore, the percentage does not represent that thebicycle-related accidents have increased a lot. A more persuasive and practicalsurvey should be made about the bicycle-related accidents.

In the third place, even if the evidenceturns out to prove the forgoing assumptions, the author simply concludes thatthe bicycle-related accident is positively with wearing helmets. Although it isentirely possible, the author does not offer enough evidence to substantiatethis crucial assumption. We do not know if there are other factors affectingthe occurrence of the bicycle-related accidents. Perhaps the increase of busesand private cars cause the increase of bicycle-related accidents, or perhapsthe speed of the bicycle is designed too fast. We do not know. Withouteliminating these and other possible alternatives, the author cannot bolsterthe claim.

To sum up, the author fails to validate theconclusion that there exists an intrinsic relationship between thebicycle-related accidents and wearing helmets. To solidify the argument, theauthor should provide more concrete evidence to demonstrate the conclusion. Inaddition, the author would have to rule out the above mentioned possibilitiesthat would determine the assumptions.

普渡哥

A national survey does not mean that the researchers survey every people inthis country.

我觉得这句话不好，suvey就是选一些典型的，小范围的调研，好的survey不一定是数量取胜。

liyc1030

嗯。谢谢~

竹林中人

It is not clear, however, the scope and validity of the survey？？

竹林中人

也许你还可以质疑的一点是自行车出的事故增加了200%，但这增加的很可能是那些坚持不带头盔的人