argument 15 求拍！

peddy

15)The following memorandum is from thebusiness manager of Happy Pancake House restaurants.
Recently, butter has been replaced bymargarine in Happy Pancake House restaurants throughout the southwestern UnitedStates. This change, however, has had little impact on our customers. In fact,only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that an averageof 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change. Furthermore, many servershave reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complainwhen they are given margarine instead. Clearly, either these customers do notdistinguish butter from margarine or they use the term 'butter' to refer toeither butter or margarine.

_______________________________________________________________________________

The notion claimed by the manager of HappyPancake House in the memo seems at the first glance to be an obviousconclusion. After all, the manager cites some seemingly plausible evidences1) that only 2 percent of customers have complained for the replacement; (2)that many servers have reported that several customers do not complain whenthey are given margarine instead. The arguer, however, should have consideredsome alternative explanations, since close scrutiny of the evidences listedabove reveals that the argument is fraught with vague, oversimplified andunconvinced assumptions, making the conclusion unpersuasive as it stands.

First of all, ignoring the common sense ofthe principle of statistic method, the arguer ridiculously equate the fact that2 percent of customers have complained with the inference that 98 percent ofpeople are happy with the change. It is entirely possible that although theyshowed superficially indifference with the change, the majority of the 98percent of people who did not complained with the replacement are actuallyunhappy, masking their real feeling for several reasons. Moreover, someconsumers may be so unhappy to eat margarine that they would never visit HappyPancake House again, let alone making a complaint. In light of this, the arguersurely could not defend his conclusion without providing some furtherinformation about the attitude of the other 98 percent of the customers.

Secondly, from the survey reported by someservers mentioned in the memo, unfortunately, we find no evidence to prove thatsuch survey is randomly conducted, and we even have reliable reason to doubt ifthe representatives are contributing to a sufficiently large sample to reflecta general attitudes of all consumers in the southwest of United States. It isapparently possible that only 100 customers in a row are involved in the in thesurvey, and the statistic consequence mentioned in the memo may be no more thana coincidence. Even assuming that, in ideal condition, representatives incertain amount perfectly represent the will of the whole. No evidencechallenges the possibility that servers, for a promotion, are cheating in datain order to cater the manager, rendering the conclusion made by the manager unconvincedat all.

Last but not the least, even if the arguerhave logically thought about all the underlying assumptions as well asalternative explanations, it is still open to doubt that the customers areeither lacking of ability to distinguish between butter and margarine or usingthe term 'butter' to refer to the both. Since no evidence cites to underminethe possibilities that consumers are so eagerly to fill the stomach that no oneseriously care about whether it is butter or margarine.

Ina nut shell, the argument is logically flawed in many aspects, rendering thereasoning farfetched as it stands. In order to enhance its arguing, furtherdetails should be provided: (1) the credibility of the servers; (2)the attitudeof the other 98 percent of people; (3)the evaluation of some alternativeexplanations. Only in this way can the manager draw a reliable conclusion andbe convinced by more people.

peddy

首段缩减了一点，末段跟昨天agu60基本是一样的所以就忽略吧！跪谢帮助！
提纲：
1：2%=。=不等于98%^_^可能有人不满意但不抱怨，也可能有人不满意直接就不光临了就更别说抱怨了。
2：server的调查数据不可信，样本可能不够大。就算调查本身可信，server可能作假迎合老板。
3：就算老板把可能的问题全尼玛考虑了，结论的either or逻辑不对，可能是顾客太忙没工夫挑剔。

peddy

另外请教前辈，我这两篇都是超时写的，因为是重新捡起来作文的前两篇，想适应一下，请问如果时间不够一定要缩减，哪些部分缩减影响最小，我个人认为possibility完全不能少。。

竹林中人

结尾真的没必要这么写，前面说清楚了这里就不需要再重复归纳下

peddy

求竹林大哥粘一个高质量结尾让我学习学习。结尾怎么改好呢

竹林中人

结尾你好好学习下OG上的就好，可以写什么，然后又有画龙点睛的作用

peddy

OK！谢啦！