argument131，求各位大佬狠狠地拍，谢谢!

糖心

131The following memorandum is from the business manager of Happy Pancake House restaurants.
"Butter has now been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House restaurants throughout the southwestern United States. Only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that an average of 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change. Furthermore, many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead. Clearly, either these customers cannot distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term 'butter' to refer to either butter or margarine. Thus, we predict that Happy Pancake House will be able to increase profits dramatically if we extend this cost-saving change to all our restaurants in the southeast and northeast as well."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.


In the memorandum, the author predicts that if all Happy Pancake House, HPH, restaurants, use margarine instead of butter, they will increase profit for sure. To strengthen his point, he cites that customers rarely complain in the restaurants that have already adopted the change. However, there are some unanswered questions in his argument that make his prediction dubious.
To start with, the fact that only 2 percent of customers have complain and severs’ reports that little customers complain are weak evidences that customers are happy with the change. First, I don’t know how many customers give feedback after their meals. Maybe most of they didn’t bother to complain and just didn’t return to the restaurant again when they are dissatisfied about the change. In that case, the percentage of customers’ complaint is little indication of whether they are happy about the change. Even assume that customers generally word out their dissatisfaction, I don’t know whether these customers are representative when it comes to the choice between butter and margarine. Maybe most of the customers haven’t order pancakes with butter or margarine topping. Maybe they have fruit or vegetable toppings. The more proportion of these kind of customer, the less representative they are to indicate whether customers are happy about the shift from butter to margarine. To strengthen his argument, the author has to answer the question that how many customers do complain about their dissatisfaction and how many customers do have to choose between butter and margarine.
Even assuming that customers are happy about the change in southwestern restaurants, the question that whether customers in the southeast and northeast will be equally happy about the change is still unanswered. There is the possibility that people in the southwest have the habit of using margarine instead of butter, or it is a usual practice for other southwestern restaurants to use margarine instead of butter. In this scenario, it will be unwise to adopt the change in other parts of the country according to the preference of only one part for southeastern and northeastern customers might be highly unhappy about the change. To bolster his argument, the author has to answer the question whether customers in the southeast and northeast typifies the customers in the southwest. If they are, then maybe his prediction is sound. Otherwise, it will be very unconvincing.
Finally, even if the previous two questions are answered, there is still the remaining question about the cost and revenue to answer so that I can know whether the change will be able to increase profits. I don’t know how much money the change can save. Also I don’t know how many customers will be lost if HPH adopt the change. If more customers are lost due to this change, then the increase of the cost saving can not cover the decrease of the revenue. In this case, the author cannot convince me that such a change will ensure increase profits. To convince me, the author has to provide detailed information about the price of margarine and butter as well as a representative marketing survey which could evaluate how many customers will stick to HPH restaurants if the change is adopted.
In sum, while it will help HPH restaurants to save cost, the authors’ argument and prediction is unconvincing as it stands. To better persuade me that such a change will indeed increase HPH restaurants profits, the author has to answer several questions including whether customers do complain after their meals, how many of them have to choose between margarine and butter, how will the customers in the southeast and northeast react once the change is adopted as well as a cost and revenue evaluation based on marketing research.
(50 min) 严重超时，快没信心了。

糖心

这篇给点意见吧。

竹林中人

也许你可以精简下中间段，每一段不必谈很多，谈透一点就好

糖心

谢谢指点。