Argument 41 大家来指点一下吧~~

2010202461

argument 41 题目：
　　The following appeared in a health newsletter.

　　"A ten-year nationwide study of the effectiveness of wearing a helmet while bicycling indicates that ten years ago, approximately 35 percent of all bicyclists reported wearing helmets, whereas today that number is nearly 80 percent. Another study, however, suggests that during the same ten-year period, the number of bicycle-related accidents has increased 200 percent. These results demonstrate that bicyclists feel safer because they are wearing helmets, and they take more risks as a result. Thus, to reduce the number of serious injuries from bicycle accidents, the government should concentrate more on educating people about bicycle safety and less on encouraging or requiring bicyclists to wear helmets."
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
　　Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
提纲：
1. 作者提及人数增加的数据统计是“reported”，因此有很大可能性很多人没有report，提供的数据不可信
2. 作者说事故数量上升200%，这个数据没有给出基数，不能说明问题
3. 还有很多其他可能性导致与自行车相关的事故
=======================================================================================
时间 35    字数 510
=======================================================================================

The argument in the health newsletter suggests the government to educate people about bicycle safety more and encourage bicyclists to wear helmets less. To make the argument sound, the author provides evidence about the increasing number of people who wear helmets and the mounting number of bicycle related accidents, and then he reasons the cause of this phenomenon. The reasoning process seems persuasive, but if readers consider more about the assumption of this argument, some parts of the reasoning process is not reasonable enough.

In the first place, the author says that the reported percentage of bicyclists who wear helmets increases from 35 percent to 80 percent during the latest ten years. Some readers may note that the author referred to a word "reported", which means that the argument is based on an assumption that the all the people reported their true state of wearing helmets. However, this assumption may be not right. For instance, the author may acquire this data from a survey of bicyclists, and people who are surveyed may not tell the author whether they are wearing helmets as the fact is. To make this argument more convincing, the author must provide evidence that the data he presents truly indicates the world that is or was happening.

In addition, the author asserts that during the ten years he surveys, the number of bicycle-related accidents has increased 200 percent. Even if the data is convincing, which may also have a problem with the flaw presented by me above, the author assumes that the total people or the number of bicyclists of the nation is the same. But there is a considerable probability that more and more people are becoming bicyclists during this decade. In other words, the author failed to prove that the data he provides in this argument means effectively or truly reflects the less safety of bicyclists. Otherwise the argument is weakened by this lack of assumption.

Finally, granted that the latent flaws or problems presented above are solved by providing more evidence by the author, this argument in the newsletter also seems less persuasive. Because the author reasons that it is their wearing helmets that leads to bicyclists' taking more risks while they are bicycling, and eventually, results in the increase of accidents. The author failed to convince us of the fact that other chances cannot contribute to the mounting accidents, say, the more carelessness of vehicle drivers and the lack of attention of pedestrians. This unstated assumption makes the inferential process of this argument tenuous.

To sum up, although the major reasoning process sounds good, the author failed to provide much evidence to show us the assumptions those reasons are based is warranted. As a consequence, this argument from the newsletter can be subverted by some questions asked by readers. To make his argument more convincing and persuasive, the author has to provide many more things to justify his assumptions. Only by this way can the readers believe in his suggestions, and can the government adopt this recommendation which will stabilize safety of bicyclists.

竹林中人

可能时间关系，你掉了一点，我觉得是比较重要的一点就是，最后的那个建议是毫无根据的，less on encouraging or requiring bicyclists to wear helmets.LZ看怎么能融合进去，以便使文章更完整。
LZ的语言功底很好，要向你学习啊

2010202461

竹林过奖了。我当时确实忽略的这一点，现在看来确实还是很必要加进去的，但是在这个基础上的话貌似最好在最后一段提两句，这样才不会破坏大的构架；或者就是把这个另外做一段，专门写一下，不过本来我时间就超了，再加一段的话貌似有点悬，要是重写的话把前两个错误选一个不写吧，这样应该稍微好一点。。。。
谢版主点拨~~~