argument 93， 求拍

2010202461

题目　　：
The following appeared in a memorandum from the manager of WWAC radio station.

　　"WWAC must change from its current rock-music format because the number of listeners has been declining, even though the population in our listening area has been growing. The population growth has resulted mainly from people moving to our area after their retirement, and we must make listeners of these new residents. But they seem to have limited interest in music: several local stores selling recorded music have recently closed. Therefore, just changing to another kind of music is not going to increase our audience. Instead, we should adopt a news-and-talk format, a form of radio that is increasingly popular in our area."
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　　Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

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时间 45     字数 485      【怎么都觉得时间不够用啊。。。。30分钟的时候我才写完第三段。。。。TT】
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The manager of WWAC radio station suggests in the memo that WWAC should shift its current rock-music format to a news-and-talk format as a consequence of some reasons, such as the growing population and the declining listeners, the shut-down of some local music stores and so on. The recommendation and the argument seem reasonable and rewarding, but some flaws can be found in the reasoning process.

The manager asserts that the population in the listening area has been growing while the number of WWAC listeners is declining and he concludes that current format of radio isn't popular any more. However, a proximate percentage of listeners can't legitimately reflect the quality of its present format. There is a big chance that the new residents aren't fond of radio programs; instead, they may tend to TV programs or newspapers more. In this way, a change of WWAC's format makes no sense unless a comprehensive vicissitude of the station's business model. As a result, this reason for the changing of programs' format is weaken by this probability.

In addition, alternative evidence that several local stores selling recorded music have recently closed explains the limited interest in music. The result may be true, but just some shut-downs can't sufficiently account for a limited interest. The shut-down of music stores can be explained in many other ways. Internally, those music stores may confront with too much competitive pressure, which will contribute to the shut-down. Or externally, it can also stem from the residents' little interests of buying a record, not because of their modicum interests of music, but their listening music in other ways, say, download music from Napster or listen to music in Podcast. If the above things prove true, the conclusion of citizens' limited interests isn't evidently right.

Given that the manager provides evidence that the new citizens do lack an interest in music, and the declining of the listeners is a consequence of the rock-music format, a shift to news-and-talk format isn't reasonable either. But why a change to news-and-talk format can save the company? Is there any evidence is presented in this memo that formats except for music and talking ones is unpopular? Chances that those listeners are always waiting for an opera programs, advertisements seems likely. To make his argument more persuasive, the manager must also provide some facts their latent listeners are truly fond of news and talk shows by a report of survey or statistical research. Only in this way, the shift may sounds well-supported.

To sum up, the argument in this memorandum made by the manager cannot soundly and appropriately explain the advantages of the program shift. Many probabilities can weaken the recommendation easily. To make the argument less vulnerable, some evidences have to be shown and many questions should be answered. By dealing with those problems and then making a change can WWAC radio station boom and revitalize in this area.

普渡哥

写得不错

竹林中人

还不错

2010202461

多谢夸奖~