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The following appeared in a recommendation from the President of the Amburg Chamber of Commerce.
"Last October, the city of Belleville installed high-intensity lighting in its central business district, and vandalism there declined almost immediately. The city of Amburg, on the other hand, recently instituted police patrols on bicycles in its business district. However, the rate of vandalism here remains constant. Since high-intensity lighting is clearly the most effective way to combat crime, we recommend using the money that is currently being spent on bicycle patrols to install such lighting throughout Amburg. If we install this high-intensity lighting, we will significantly reduce crime rates in Amburg."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
In the argument above,the author concludes that the city of Amburg shoulf install the high-intensity lighting as what the city of Belleville did at last October so that the crime rates in Amburg can be reduce in a obvious degree.To support the conclusion,the author compares the rates of police patrols on bicycle recently and before which shows no improvement. Besides,the author indicates that, Amburg should give financial support to the installment of high-intensity lighting instead of supporting bicycle patrols.However,the high-intensity lighting give great help to the city of Belleville , the argument is lacking of a number of evidences that can be accepted.
First of all, the passage told us that the city of Bellevilleinstalled the lighting in its central business district on last October,however, the author fails to indicate that what is the condition of the vandalism rates outside the central of business in Belleville. We can assume that if Belleville has a condition of crime more terrible than Amburg,the lighting in the business center can help to decline the rate there, but the whole city still in an extremely vandalism situation.The author fails to prove the lighting in Belleville is able to decrease the rate of vandalism of the whole city.Meanwhile,even the rate can represent the rate of the whole city, it also give a puzzle that the author collected the rate of Belleville belongs to last October but we don't know the rate of it right now.If the crime rate of Belleville is increasing in high speed but the author forget to collect,we will cast doubt on the effection of the high-tensity lighting.
Secondly,the author indicate that the rate of Amburg vandalism remain constant after the police patrols business district on the bicycle.In this evidence,it is lack of interpretation about the detail of the rate.We can guess that the crime rate of Amburg is not as high as Belleville. If the number of the whole city vandolism is 5 but the business district has covered 4,the rate of this district will be too large to stun the author.Although that number is an assumption,the author should clarify the rate of it in detail.In addition,the author demonstrates that the installment of the high-intensity lighting have to throughout the whole city,which give rise to the next threshold problem.
Granted that the rate of the business district of Amburg is higher than you can image,the city meybe in a harmony atmosphere and without so many vandalism except the business areas.Such a safety city that won't have a great number of criminal stuffs . The evidence is absent to prove the author's idea that the whole city should be installed the high-intensity lighting.
Furthor more, even the whole city sincerely need to install that kind of lighting which help for their city security,how much money should be paid? The author told to use the money which used to be spent on the patrols on bicycle,however,whether does the author know that the money is enough to become the financial support? The writer should have given out a budget about the installment plan and compared with the patrols cost which is based on the budget had been accomplished before the patrols began. Meanwhile,the effection of every public service maybe unpredictible, the budget should be including enough money to figure out the puzzles.
From the logical perspective,the arguer fails to make an equivalent between Belleville and Amburg.Even the high-intensity lighting in Belleville is able to work out and the rate of vandalism inthat city is declined,there is nothing the city Amburg can be the same as Belleville,either..Such a theshold problem the author fails to solute.
To sum up,the idea of installing the whole city Amburg with the high-intensity lighting still need to be prove with more evidences which can be strongly support what the author maintains.
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