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In the argument, the arguer advocates the government should concentrate more on educating people about bicycle safety and less on encouraging or requiring bicyclists to wear helmets. To buttress the conclusion, the arguer cites two study related to emphasize the importance. Although it seems reasonable at first glance, it is ill-convinced in fact. The reasons are stated as follows. In the first study, the arguer shows the statistics about the percent of all bicyclists reported wearing helmets through ten-year nationwide study, yet it makes no contribution to the accident rate. The percent number of wearing helmets does not indicate that it causes more accidents. Maybe the lives of people today are much better than before that they are much more likely to buy a helmet. The arguer's reasoning is definitly flawed unless the arguer can convince me that this or other scenarios are unlikely. In the second study, the arguer cites that the number of bicycle-related accidents has increased 200 percent and claims that bicyclists feel much safer because they are wearing helmets and therefore likely to take risks. Nevertheless, there is no garantee that it is necessary the case, and the arguer provides no evidence to confirm the conclusion. It is very possible that the number of bicycles and other vihecles has also been increasing during that period. To illustrate this point clearly, let us take a close example of it. We assume that there are 100 bicycle-related accidents in all 1000 vihecle accidents but 200 bicycle-related accidents in 10000 vihecle accidents. Though the number of bicycl-related accidents has increased, however, the percentage it makes up to total accidents has declined. Without accounting for and ruling out these and other alternatives, the arguer can not bolster the conclusion. The last but not the least important, even if the evidence turns out to be supportive, the arguer can not recommand the government to encourage bicyclists not to wear helmets. Wearing a helmet is a very effective way to protect a bicyclist, while he or she has little awareness of danger. Wearing a helmet is a direct way to keep our brain from damage and hence make a bicyclist much safer. To sum up, the arguer's argument mentioned above is not based on valid evidence or sounding reasoning, neither of which is dispensable for a conclusive argument. In order to draw a better conclusion, the arguer should reason more convincingly, cite some evidence that is more persuasive, and take every possible consideration into account. |
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