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- 2010-1-15
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- 1970-1-1
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“Our total sales have increased this year by 20 percent since we added a pharmacy section to our grocery store. Clearly, the customer’s main concern is the convenience afforded by one-stop shopping. The surest way to increase our profits over the next couple of years, therefore, is to add a clothing department along with an automotive supplies and repair shop. We should also plan to continue adding new departments and services, such as a restaurant and a garden shop, in subsequent years. Being the only store in the area that offers such a range of services will give us a competitive advantage over other local stores.”
JJ给的提纲
1.没有建立因果。sequence不能证明因果。不知道收入来自哪个section. 很可能是有其他的原因:很可能是pharmacy没有利润。利润来自其他的部分。比如食品等,质量提高,或者经济情况好,人们有更多的demand。
2.销售额增加不一定是profit增加。
3.错误类比:就算加入了pharmacy引起了收入提高,也不能说增加的clothing和其他也会引起收入。很可能人们不是因为convenience,而是对medicine的需要。很可能其他的,人们更愿意到special shops。
1和3这两种错误都想到了,可是今天突然发现,没有建立因果和他因类错误很容易就混到一起去了。就比如说JJ里给的这个提纲1,我就觉得又像他因又像无因果
还有对提纲2不理解- - 为什么销售额增加推不出利润增加呢
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