Disclaimer: I know that calculating acceptance rate and making a ton of assumptions is pointless but it is FUN and a great way to waste time … lol
Thecow10000 – In my best case scenario, I tried to remove as many assumptions as possible. That is why I tried to get around the yield %.
Frankly, in the end the decision to each one of us is binary (yes, no). Lets hope that a significant number of chasedreamers get in.
10% for R3 sounds right It's consistent with many schools. However, Chicago adcom did mention that they receive more applicants for R2... therefore I would peg the % at R1 42%, R2 48%, R3 10%. Chicago's yield is usually not as high as 70%. It usually top at 65% (but this year is tougher so maybe they will expect a higher yield). Maybe we can take something like 2/3 for our calculation sake. I am pretty confident that last year's enrolled is 591 = 4200 * 22% * 64%. To be conservative, lets expect 5% growth in applicants to 4400 * 42% for R1 * 50% interviewed = 920 (Rose: "over 900") If we conservatively expect enrollment of 590 again divide higher yield of 2/3 and * 42% = 372 accepted. 372/920 = 41.3333% (acceptance of those who have been interviewed). Just my 2 cents.
Just to make everyone happy (especially myself), lets look at the best case scenario: Number of offers extended= 4200 * 22% = 924. Assuming the distribution of offers for the 3 rounds are 10:9:2 (48%, 43%, 10%). There will be 440 offers extended in R1. Acceptance rate of 49% for those who interviewed in R1! -- by 会员 turbo2008 (2009/12/7 18:15:31)
-- by 会员 thecow10000 (2009/12/9 7:19:09)
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