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taylor1983

108. The following appeared as part of a business plan created by the management of the Take Heart Fitness Center.
“After opening the new swimming pool early last summer, Take Heart saw a 12 percent increase in the use of the center by members. Therefore, in order to increase the number of our members and thus our revenues, which depend on membership fees, we should continue to add new recreational facilities in subsequent years: for example, a multipurpose game room, a tennis court, and a miniature golf course. Being the only center in the area offering this range of activities would give us a competitive advantage in the health and recreation market.”

In this argument the arguer concludes that in order to increase the number of their members and revenues, which depend on membership fees, they should continue to add new recreational facilities in subsequent years. To support the conclusion, the arguer points out that after opening the new swimming pool early last summer, Take Heart saw a 12 percent increase in the use of the center by members.In addition,the arguer reasons that being the only center in the area offering this range of activities would give them a competitive advantage in the health and recreation market.At first glance ,the argument is  somewhat convincing ,but a further examination reveals that it suffers some critical flows .

In the first place ,the arguer commits the fallacy of all things are equal.The fact that happened last summer is not a sound evidence to draw the conclusion that they should continue to add new recreational facilities in subsequent years.The arguer assumes without justifications that the background conditions have remain the same in the subsequent years.However,it is no clear in this argument that whether the conditions in the subsequent years are the same as they used to be last summer.Thus it is impossible to conclude that they should continue to add new recreational facilities in subsequent years to see the increase in use of the center by members.

In the second place,the arguer falsely depends on gratuitous assumption that being the only center in the area offering this range of activities would give them a competitive advantage in the health and recreation market.However,no evidence is stated in the argument to support this assumption.In fact ,this is not necessarily the case.For example,it is more likely that although being the only center in the area offering this range of activities,the number of local people are limited ,thus being more competitive is useless actually .Therefore,the argument is unwarranted without ruling out such possibility.

In conclusion,the arguer fails to provide the adequate justification for the background conditions  in the subsequent years.To strengthen the argument that the arguer should provide the evidence to prove that the conditions in the subsequent years are the same as they used to be last summer.To better assess the argument,we need a detailed information about the the number of local people who are eager to be the members of the Take Heart.So that we can establish the conclusion whether increasing the number of their members and revenues, which depend on membership fees, they can continue to add new recreational facilities in subsequent years.